Modest Kolerov: The New Big Caucasus. Mutual containment without aliens. What exists no more and what can happen

Read it in Russian

The USA advised quite roughly to Syria not even to speak about the war in South Ossetia and responsibility of Georgia for its outcomes, but to occupy itself with “regional” problems instead. It is quite a precise and timely idea: for Syria, one of key regional problems is the alliance of Turkey and Israel. The Turkey whose military, economic, political, special Ajarian and special Abkhaz interests are intertwined with Georgia and its prospects. And the Israel who had been arming Georgia – the aggressor — up to the most recent days, who stated by lips of its ambassador to Georgia that Holocaust only was the genocide, rather than the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire (Armenians once found their shelter in the territory of the current Syria and Lebanon controlled by it).

To cut it short, here we have our own complicated, historical “regional” drama. It is not for a representative of the other side of the Moon, who is unable to find Syria and Caucasus without consulting a global map, to step forward with methodological instructions. However, the USA unwillingly noted rightly the main thing: the new Caucasus that fell prey to the failed American game in a “controllable conflict” in South Ossetia and Georgia cannot afford remaining the ground for provocations of stranger, be they very interested, parties. The Balkans managed to do this, but the Caucasus failed.

The matter is about the need for a new system of security in Caucasus that, independently from diplomatic victories and failures, from number of new wars and genocides, will call for absolute exclusion of “global” players, who are not connected with the fate of Caucasus in terms of life or physically, for simple survival of the region as a most complicated ethnic, religious and political unity.

It is these “global” incompetent players that force Ukrainian premier-contender Timoshenko sign by her political name an article made of the Kennan’s “long telegram” and almost Hitler-style main features, headlined “Containing Russia”. For the same purpose of “containment,” they bring to Tbilisi a descent of leaders of the Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine touring far away from their domestic problems. Or, they glue together the poverty-struck Moldova with the well-off Azerbaijan into the internally unmotivated GUAM. It would be of the same dubious nature, if, for instance, Indonesia sponsored “containment” of Argentina by including the neighboring Paraguay into a pro-Indonesian alliance named after Java Island…

In Caucasus, even without such players, the need for rational containment of regional nations is unquestionable; such containment can be only mutual and full of mutual responsibility for Caucasus. Any containment from outside is its opposition, a manipulation.

Completing the foreword to the following assertions I would like to stress they are extending the approach to the new system of security in Caucasus systematically developed by REGNUM Editor-in-Chief Vigen Hakopyan in his article “Georgia’s mortal enemies” (in Russian) comprised of three leaders (Russia, Turkey, Iran) and three “middleweights” (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia). Thus, as a result of the war in South Ossetia, what does no more exist politically in Caucasus and around it? What politically new things can appear? What questions have no evident answers?

What does no more exist politically and will never exist again in Caucasus and around it?

1.       The Commonwealth of Independent States

2.       GUAM

3.       “The Baltic – Black Sea arc” from the Baltic to Caspian Sea

4.       Organization for Black Sea Economic Cooperation and similar types

5.       Georgia that includes Abkhazia and South Ossetia

6.       Azerbaijan’s blitzkrieg in Nagorno Karabakh

7.       Azerbaijan including the Armenian Nagorno Karabakh

8.       Transit communication corridors from the Caspian Sea to the Black and Mediterranean Sea through territories of Azerbaijan and Georgia

9.       Alternative role of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan in delivery of energy carriers to the West

10.   Participation of Bulgaria, Ukraine, Moldova in Caucasus issues

11.   Russian separatism in Crimea

12.   Project of unification of Adygea and Krasnodar Territory in Russia

What political novelties can appear?

1.       Recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia

2.       Recognition of Nagorno Karabakh by Armenia

3.       Recognition of Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

4.       Federalization of Georgia without South Ossetia and Abkhazia with autonomization of, apart from Ajaria, at least Kvemo Kartli (Borcali).

5.       Associate relations of South Ossetia with Russia (North Ossetia)

6.       Regional security system established by Russia, Turkey and Iran

7.       Regional security system of Caspian Sea nations

8.       Regional security system of Russia, Turkey, Iran, Armenia counterbalanced by NATO members: Azerbaijan and Georgia (and Armenia?)

9.       Regional security system of Russia, Turkey, and Iran, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia.

10.   Regional security system of Russia, Turkey, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia, including Abkhazia and South Ossetia (and Nagorno Karabakh?)

11.   Armenia-Russian union similar to the Belarus-Russia Union State

12.   Recognition of Iraqi Kurdistan independence by the USA

13.   Federalization of Ukraine

14.   Confederation of Moldova and Transdnestr

What questions have no answer?

1.       Will the united front of Turkey and Azerbaijan be restored regarding Georgia?

2.       How stable and perspective will be the alliance of Turkey and Iran, especially against Kurdistan?

3.       When will Georgia and Azerbaijan enter NATO?

4.       Will Armenia join NATO?

5.       When will the provisional plan of the Karabakh settlement “peace for territories” be implemented?

6.       Does the new security system guarantee a corridor from Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan Autonomy like the Lachin corridor into Karabakh, will Turkey remain protector of Nakhchivan?

7.       When will the Crimean-Tatar separatism come in practice in Crimea?

8.       Will Turkey become the second after Russia guarantor of security of an independent Abkhazia?

9.       What new goals will be set by the radical Islamist and other subversive underground in Russia’s North Caucasus and in Abkhazia?