Vigen Hakobyan: Pat in the Ukraine- civil war of institutions ahead

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Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko revoked from Verkhovna Rada the proposal on appointment Valentin Nalivaychenko as a chairman of Security Service of Ukraine. Ostensible purpose was the “redundant politicization” of this issue. Meantime, it is obvious, that the personality of Security Service leader can not be deprived of political components. Especially in the Ukraine and especially during the pre-election time.

The main intrigue of current situation is the extension of influence on Ukrainian government institutes. “Politicum” is maneuvering as it is very much aware the outcome of the presidential elections will depend on who will be able to build the most influential units of the “control system”. That is the very SBU, the Office of the Prosecutor, the Central Executive Committee, the Judicial system, the Interior Ministry and at last the Army. Electoral landscape itself ceased to be of fundamental importance for presidential candidates. People suffered disappointments many times and do not believe anybody.

Triangle Yushchenko-Timoshenko-Yanukovych weakened all three sides of the triangle due to cut-throat competition of recent five years and could not manage to come to the crunch. Strengthening of one of the poles immediately led to consolidation efforts of two others. The activity of one side leads to counteraction of two others.  This axiom allowed this trinity to remain atop of the triangle, but exhausted them to the limit. Any integration or association of sides would result the head –on crash with the third participant. The value of the matter was too high that is why sides preferred to be included in ad hoc collusions, causing damage to their electoral reputation, ideological priorities and political image. As a result, today there is not an “orange” pro-western camp in Ukraine, as well as there is not “white-blue” pro-Russian front. In fact it is a political pat.

Lack of possibilities to exercise the political activity causes an extra nervosity to the sides. Relations between Yushchenko and Timoshenko are already far away from political and they look like a kitchen broil.On the other hand, Yanukovych, who had destroyed its political basis to keep the balance into a triangle, is unable today to present “peoples” ultimatum, although he is permanently threatening. Yanukovych is verging towards destruction of its political camp –the Regions Party. It would seem, there is wonderful opportunity for fourth party to appear, in other words for new political figure. However, this possibility is excluded in nowadays Ukraine due to objective reasons. A new independent pole will be extirpated by consolidated actions of the indicated trinity. Only clones are acceptable for this triangle, which were developed for its feeding, such as Lutsenko, Yatsenyuk, Konovalyuk, Volga, Baloga’s “United center” and others.

Pat at the highest level resulted complete disorganization of masses. The electoral base of potential participants of presidency is washed out. Yushchenko is deprived of such electoral base at all. By the start of presidential campaign Tomoshenko will face the lack of 10% of her rating due to socio-economic collapse. Today Yanukovych’s perspectives are more depending not on the level of populations’ credibility, but on the outcome of influence redistribution in the Regions Party.

An impact on state administration bodies and institutes becomes a key determinant. The outcome of confrontation between institutions will depend not so much on how successful political parties would overmaster them, but on the fact how effective these politicians would be able to run their decisions and actions in critical moment. Even more, this outcome will depend on how independent would act numerous state institutions, remaining without political control under the conditions of pat.

Central Executive Committee will be a spearhead.  Here the position is held by the president Yushchenko, at the level of committee’s head Vladimir Shapovala. However the committee’s decisions on the whole will depend on operative contractual possibilities of sides. Julia Timoshenko, who had extended her influence over Interior Ministry (Yuri Lutsenko) and judicial system (Vasiliy Onopenko, the chairman of the Ukrainian Supreme Court, is considered as one of devoted the prime minister), can get an affront from SBU and the Office of the Prosecutor. The last two structures are divided between the president and representatives of the Regions Party. Constitutional Court Chairman Andrey Strizhak is from Trascarpathia and, according to observers he is close to Victor Baloga, the Head of the Secretary of the President of Ukraine. However his influence could be neutralized by efforts of lobbyists of Timoshenko, close to Medvedchuk’s command.

The described competition between the tops of political triangle caused the discredit of parties of the second echelon, in particular, left-wing parties such as Communist and Socialist parties of Ukraine. Communists and socialists picked up from one another the initiative in lobbying the interests of one or another clan, being not unable to compete with powerful oligarchic pyramids, ranged behind each participant of triangle. Communists have managed to draw dividends by maneuvering between Timoshenko and Yanukovych. Today they are deprived of this possibility, because the weaker these two poles became, the more open support they demanded from the satellites. This days Petr Simonenko’s party is closely bound to the camp of Timoshenko. Elections of 2010 will become the last fight for communists, after which they will face complete exposure and deactualisation. Socialists fell victim to clear choice in behalf of money and today are not a real political force. The pole of Mayor of Kiev Leonid Chernovecky is rising against the populist front, but however as it was said earlier his nomination to the presidential post, only would lead to consolidated rejection of main competitors. He will have to support one of them. From this point of view, Cherepovecky’s support could be an important contribution to every participant of presidency. 

To conclude, Ukrainian elections of 2010 years will become civil war of governmental institutions. It will be the main test for the Ukrainian statehood in the course of increasing economic crisis. The resignation of Valery Khoroshkovsky, the head of State Customs Service, has clearly revealed a deep political interference into personnel management affairs in the Ukraine. Timoshenko’s government sacked Chief Customs Officer straight upon his refusal to release gas from UGS (underground gas storages), formerly owned by RosUkrEnergo, but recently assigned to Naftogaz. The final distribution of institutions on political priorities did not take place yet. Main fight is ahead, where all possible methods will be used, up to forcible takeover of important posts, which we have already observed on the example of some financial departments as National Property Fund, National Bank and etc.

How will Ukrainian statehood overcome this war of institutions and whether it will remain sovereign statehood is rather theoretical question. Irresponsibility of Ukrainian politicians has already almost destroyed their neutral state sense and finally took away all restrictions towards transformation of institutions and government authorities into anarchistic-feudal duplications of Zaporozhian Sich (camp of Cossacks). Maybe, this is the main tradition of the Ukrainian statehood.