International Crisis Group representative: war in Nagorno Karabakh can start at any moment

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“If we observe the Nagorno Karabakh conflict from the OSCE Minsk Group point of view, it can be the only conflict in the CIS territory, in settlement of which all world powers are interested, because continuation of the conflict is unprofitable to everybody, including the US, Russia and Europe,” said vice-president of the International Crisis Group Alain Deletroz.

According to Deletroz, the situation at the contact line between the conflict sides only seems calm because no one speaks about it, but it does not mean that the conflict has “frozen”. The Karabakh conflict caused more victims than the Abkhaz or South Ossetian ones. The Armenian Defense minister told Deletroz that every year, approximately 40 people die in the conflict, so if Azerbaijani information is similar, it means that 80 people die every year, and so it cannot be called a “frozen” conflict. He added that the war in Nagorno Karabakh can start at any moment, after one of the sides suddenly thinks it has enough forces to retrieve all occupied territories. He added that recent showings of both Azerbaijan and Armenian economies demonstrate that war will ruin all positive tendencies, and it gives hope for the peaceful settlement of the conflict by means of negotiations.

Speaking about Karabakh readiness for negotiations, the ICG vice-president said that he sees Karabakh willingness to solve this question, but also their fear to lose occupied territories, that are now Karabakh military security guarantees. But at the same time, Karabakh wants international recognition, so it could return the territories after international guarantees of peace treaty, but probably Karabakh will not accept it. Regarding the public opinion in Nagorno Karabakh, Deletroz said that residents of Karabakh think of themselves as about winners, but at the same time there are lots of problems with living in the enclave, blocked by Azerbaijan and Turkey. They cannot use Baku seaport that always was important for this region, because of the front line. So ICG will try to create special corridors to Baku, informs Vremya Novostey.