Explosions of pipelines in North Ossetia – a message to Armenia?

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Explosions on the gas pipelines in North Ossetia, which resulted in cut-off of gas supplies from Russia to Georgia and Armenia, coincided with the visit of Armenian President Robert Kocharyan in Moscow not accidentally, South Caucasus expert Viktor Yakubyan told a REGNUM correspondent. The expert is sure, that the diversions were aimed at “persuading” Armenia once again of unreliability of the Russian gas route.

“On January 22, Armenian President discussed possible mechanisms of settlement of accounts with the Gazprom Company that would be suitable for Armenia. Armenia is the only country in South Caucasus that continues talks with the Russian gas monopolist after it decided to raise gas prices for the countries in the region for $110 for a thousand cubic meters. Evidently, the Russian party is making proposals that adopted by Yerevan can bring about some preferences in the gas issue. However, some forces will profit from persuading Armenia that the Russian gas route is not reliable. It can make Armenia consider the question of laying alternative gas pipelines, which the Iranian route is trying to be. To these forces I ascribe Georgia that tries to diversify its gas supplies system by actively promoting the idea of the Iranian gas transit to Georgia via Armenia. Thus, Armenia is faced with the dilemma, either to agree with Russia, but to be not sure that Georgia will let the Russian gas go through its territory, or to refuse from cooperation with Russia, but pledge to bring the Iranian gas through its territory to Georgia. The first way supposes letting Russian investors participate in the Iran-Armenia gas pipeline construction, which will break Georgia’s aspirations, as well as Ukraine’s and some other East European countries. The second way poses threat to the allied relations with Russia in exchange for the extremely adventurous project of transit of the Iranian gas to Europe via South Caucasus, the Black Sea and Ukraine. In case the project is implemented, it can become a rival to the Blue Stream Project that was launched not long ago. However, the adventurous nature of the project is not it, but in the situation over Iran, its nuclear program, as well as in the fact that Armenia does not have full analysis of the Russian-Iranian relations. Besides, Yerevan cannot hope for the full readiness and interest of Tehran in transit of its resources through territories of countries controlled by the USA, in particular, Georgia (Tehran realizes that this route is imposed mostly by the West). Iran can limit itself to the East market, for access to which it is trying to win from the USA,” noted the expert.