Will Azerbaijan build “a Wall of China” to defend itself from Armenia? Azeri press digest

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Politics

In his analysis of the internal political situation in Azerbaijan in Real Azerbaijan daily the well-known Azeri political expert Hikmet Gajizade says: “One has to admit, with surprise and regret, that the country’s democratic potential has been highly overestimated by both local and foreign experts since 1990s. Many thought that democracy is as strong as authoritarianism: democrats just have to get together behind proficient leaders and, with the West behind, they will be able to crush authoritarian forces. But the reality has proved to be much sadder. The ratio of real capacity (rather than of votes) is, to us, 1:50 to authoritarianism.”

“Only last year 2005 did this fact begin to painfully get home to our politicians and intellectuals, who used to previously show this mistake in most of their words and tactical steps.” Gajizade believes that "the total (real) number of members of democratic parties in Azerbaijan is no more than 25,000, while the ruling party has 400,000 members. Almost all budgetary employees have been enrolled into the ruling Yeni Azerbaycan, with no special resistance shown on their part. During the parliamentary elections 2005 each opposition candidate was opposed by 4 governmental and 8 independent candidates (which makes 1 against 12), with most of those independent doing nothing but vowing eternal love for the regime and cursing the democrats, but with little avail – the authorities left them all holding the bag. I can’t help being sarcastic but the preamble of Azadlyq bloc’s platform said: “In this country one can survive only by losing all of his morality and becoming a humble creature, and sometimes this too is in vain.”

Gajizade says: "The FAR CENTRE nationwide public opinion poll 2005 has shown that only 11% of the Azeris are worried that there is no democracy and human rights in their country. 25% are advocates of the ruling regime and 25% are advocates of its change — the rest are silent majority the government and the opposition are each pulling to its side.

We are still a state in transition, but our transition is not to democracy but to monarchy. And obviously the problem is not in the Aliyevs and even not in the Soviet heritage, but in the unshaken by centuries authoritarian traditions of our western Asian society. To put it bluntly, in our country there are more haydar aliyevs than vazlav havels.

There has been no drastic raise in the democratic potential in the last 8 years. Even worse, they have begun to kill journalists. The core of the democratic movement of the country is still “the generation of 1988.” No single governmental group, no single mogul, no single trade union (which are almost inexistent) have to date shown any support for reforms, as they in Georgia and Ukraine did. And so, opposing the efficient authoritarian and corrupt system in the authorities and the mostly authoritarian mood in the population are only 25,000 democratic activists (and a couple of thousands of activists from NGOs, journalists and free intellectuals). Unfortunately, they are growing old…

In his speech at the Feb 17 conference on the 2^nd anniversary of the start of the State Program on the Social-Economic Development of the Regions (2004-2008), Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said that some 340,000 jobs have been created since the onset of the program. In 2005 GDP grew by 26%, industry by 33.3%, popular incomes by 27%. “For successful development Azerbaijan has both social-political stability and political will. Much more people have got into business. Some $100 mln will be spent on business this year. Azerbaijan is developing quickly, but this is not all it can.” Almost 400 high schools were built in Azerbaijan in 2005 as well as new hospitals and roads: “All this is a vivid proof that our key priorities are right. The key objective of the program is to eliminate unemployment and poverty in the country.” (AzerTag)

Azeri Economic Development Minister Haydar Babayev says that per capita income in Azerbaijan is $1,508. In 2006 his ministry will carry out $450 mln worth of social-economic development projects in the regions. (New Time)

Asian Development Bank Country Director to Azerbaijan Matthew Westfall says that in 2006 the economic growth in Azerbaijan will be 30.5%. He says that ADB will continue its cooperation with Azerbaijan. It will shortly give the country $220 mln for energy programs. (AzerTag)

“Next year the budget of the Azeri Defense Ministry will grow for several times,” says Azeri Defense Minister Safar Abiyev Feb 17. He says that after increasing the budgetary support of the army, the ministry has taken serious measures to make it stronger and will continue them in the future. Abiyev says that “the Azeri soldier is always ready to defend his homeland” and calls empty talk the reports that US troops have been deployed in Azerbaijan. We haven’t even discussed anything like that. (525^th Daily)

Yeni Musavat reports deployment of US military men in the airport of Nakhichevan wherefrom they will attack Iran.

There are no US troops in Azerbaijan. The rumors that US forces are controlling the Nakhichevan airport are sheer misinformation, the spokesman for the US Embassy in Azerbaijan Jonathan Henick says in an interview to Azeri Press. He says that no relevant agreement has been made. The representative of Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic to Baku Rashat Gulamov also refutes the reports: “No single foreign plane has landed in the Nakhichevan airport.”

Azeri Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov said Feb 17 that Azerbaijan will not provide its territory for US attacks on Iran’s atomic facilities. In a joint Baku press-conference with European Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner Mamedyarov said: “Iran is our close neighbor, and this is not on agenda.” Ferrero-Walnder said that the EU is not considering this either. “We hope for peaceful diplomatic resolution of the conflict with Iran,” she said. (Zerkalo)

“Next year the European Union is going to open in Baku its special representation, which will be equivalent in authority to an embassy,” says European Commission Special Envoy to Azerbaijan Alan Waddams. He says that one of his tasks is to make necessary preparations for the opening of the representation. The EU has such offices in over 50 countries, but in the South Caucasus it has one only in Tbilisi. Waddams says that the opening of a EU special representation in Yerevan is not on agenda yet. (Trend)

“Azerbaijan is ready to provide guarantees for the peaceful co-existence of the Azeri and Armenian communities after the liberation of its occupied territories,” Speaker for the Azeri Parliament Oktay Asadov said during a meeting with EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighborhood Policy Benita Ferrero-Waldner. He said that Azerbaijan wants the Karabakh conflict to be settled on the basis of international laws and norms. He said that Azerbaijan relies on the EU’s experience in the matter. (Trend)

Feb 17 4 opposition parties of Azerbaijan – People’s Front Party (PFPA), Democratic Party (DPA), National Independence Party (NIPA) and National Unity movement – agreed to establish a political bloc Azadlyq (Freedom). After the signing of the agreement the leader of PFPA Ali Kerimli said that the parties are going to jointly fight for democracy and human rights protection in the country: “This bloc has been formed against the government rather than any opposition party. We are aiming to change the political regime. We do not want the opposition to think that this bloc is aimed against them.” The leader of National Unity Lala Shovkat-Gajiyeva is sure that the bloc will be a success. The bloc does not have any goals at the presidential election 2008. (Azadlyq)

“The Wall of China” between Azerbaijan and Armenia

Echo reports them in Azerbaijan to be considering the possibility to build a barrier between Azerbaijan and Armenia. “Sooner or later but we should raise a wall between Azerbaijan and Armenia to defend ourselves from one more aggression by the malicious neighbor and not to let the Azeri people and especially youths forget the criminal plans of Yerevan. Supporting this project are public figures and MPs. They note that the wall will be of psychological rather than defensive purpose.”

The parliamentary commissioner for defense and security Zahid Oruj says that the wall is necessary. He notes that peace agreement may resolve the conflict but will hardly change anything in psychology. “To stop hatred and distrust between the nations right after they have signed the agreement will be a hard job,” warns Oruj. He says that the Armenian aggression has been recurring throughout centuries and each time it breaks out after a short-time friendship. “This time it will be much harder to restore the former atmosphere of friendship,” says Oruj. This time it is necessary to reinforce distrust and vigilance by building a graphic example — a strong wall between the nations. “It is excellent that our society is beginning to talk about this,” says Oruj. “We’ll just have to build the wall to keep fresh the memory of the hard past for our younger generation,” he says.

MP from the Hankendi (Stepanakert — REGNUM) electoral district Khava Mamedova says to Echo: “With or without the wall we are stronger than the Armenians and must liberate our lands by any means!” she says. “This time we’ll have a short talk with the Armenians,” says MP, Adalat daily editor Agil Abbas. Today Armenia is surrounded by Turkic nations and “they will either get wiser this time or there will be none of them here at all.”

Bird flu

Plummeting demand for chicken and eggs is hitting hard in the pockets of Azeri businessmen, director of Shamkir agricultural firm Shamkhar Mamedov says to Echo. He alone has 1 mln eggs and 50,000 chickens stored, with almost nobody wanting them. “I can’t imagine what we are going to do. People are showing stereotyped fear for the bird flu,” says Mamedov. As a result, many in the regions are losing money and jobs. “We have no money to pay wages to our employees, in fact, we have no jobs either since nobody wants to buy most of what we produce,” says Mamedov, noting that the authorities must urgently put the poultry farming in order.

Meanwhile, poultry farmers are meeting to jointly find ways to solve this problem. As soon as they decide something they will ask the government for help. The epidemic rumors have dealt a slashing blow on the chicken sales, and now the poultry farmers want to convince the people that their birds have no way to catch the flu. The sales have been reduced, but the production cannot be since lots of eggs have already been laid.

The bird flu monitoring is underway. Labs have found no virus among the poultry yet, reports the deputy head of the State Veterinary Service Emin Shahbazov. At the same time, they have found Н5N1 among wild birds in Beylagan region. The spokesman of the Health Care Ministry Semaye Mamedova says that there are no reports of infected people. 36 suspicious men have come to hospital № 7 in the last few days but no bird flu was found in them.

February-March will be the most dangerous time since millions of wild birds will fly from the south to the north then. Azerbaijan is one of the key transit zone, and so the probability of bird flu in Azerbaijan is rising. Dozens of dead birds along migration routes on the Caspian shore are a vivid proof that the situation is very serious, says TURAN.

Economy. Finances

By the end of 2006 the World Bank may provide Azerbaijan with three loans worth a total of $100 mln. The agricultural project will get $30 mln, the health care project $50 mln and the project to modernize the judiciary $20 mln. The money will be lent upon the soft terms of the International Development Association, reports TURAN. Besides, in Feb the WB may provide $5 mln more for Azerbaijan to improve its irrigation system. EBRD may also provide terms for some more money for agricultural processing. Under its general cooperation strategy the WB will provide Azerbaijan with $1.2 bln in 2006-2009. Starting from 2007 the loans may be given upon tougher EBRD terms. The country strategy is to be approved in May 2006.

Some $15 bln has been invested in Azerbaijan’s oil industry since the signing of “the Contract of the Century,” thereof over $9 bln in the project to develop the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field, reports AzerTag.

This year the oil production in Azerbaijan will be all-time high – 30 mln tons. Under the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli project the daily production will be raised to 439,000 barrels. Experts forecast that Chirag-1 will give 138,000 barrels a day, Central Azeri – 226,000 barrels and Western Azeri – 75,000 barrels. In 2005 the country produced 22.2 mln tons of oil, 5.81 bln c m of gas, 22.3 bln KW/h of electricity – 6.672 mln tons, 812 mln c m and 1 bln KW/h more than in 2004. (Trend)