Lithuania's political elite in major shake-up: Lithuanian press digest

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Power redistribution in the leadership: Seym speaker dismissed, foreign minister resigns, coalition broken down

One of the oldest leaders of independent Lithuania, Speaker of the Seym Arturas Paulauskas was quite unexpectedly dismissed from his office on April 11. Though the son of a KGB officer, Paulauskas got the office of Public Prosecutor, was twice Seym Speaker and even acted as President for some time. Attractive and steady, he almost won his presidential race with Valdas Adamkus.

Experts can’t tell the reason for his rise and fall. It is shrouded in a backstage mystery. Since Paulausaks is the leader of the New Union (Social-Liberals) (one of the four coalition parties having a quota in the cabinet), the fate of the coalition is open to question. Now that the New Union has broken away, the ruling majority may break up, which may lead to political instability.

Developments Few experts expected such an outcome. The opposition’s argument for impeaching the Speaker was hardly serious — a small scandal in the Seym office: one employee used an office car for her personal purposes. For several days the Lithuanian media chewed over the news that Paulauskas’ employee took her dog in an office car. Paulauskas said he could not – and even had no right – to control all his employees. His duty is to hold Seym meetings, while to control his office is the duty of the head of the office. But almost at the same time, similar — even bigger – scandals took place in the government and the presidential offices: the governmental office secretly mortgaged the presidential residence, got a credit and built cottages for its officials, including two presidential advisers. Both the Premier and the President said they knew nothing about and were not responsible for the actions of their respective offices. But nobody said they should be impeached. (Lietuvos žinios).

Still these arguments did not convince the opposition, who collected the necessary votes for impeaching the Speaker. But ruling majority is ruling exactly because it can veto any decision by opposition. So, Paulauskas’ impeachment means that voting against him were also MPs from the ruling majority. Experts call this “a betrayal.” Shocking was not so much the dismissal itself as the quantity of MPs voting for it: 94 against 11. Experts say this would be impossible without secret instruction by the leaders of the ruling majority on how to vote.

To remind, the opposition collected only 36 signatures to start the procedure, mostly from the MPs from Pro Patria, Liberal Centrists, Liberal Democrats, some Liberals. The Seym’s regulations say that the Seym should consider the initiative for impeaching the Speaker if it is supported by at least 1/5 of the MPs, i.e. 29 MPs.

The reasons for the Speaker’s dismissal But the unanimity of the Seym’s verdict against its Speaker obviously needs more detailed explanation. One reason might be the quick growth of the popularity of the New Union and its leader. The party obviously showed to good advantage in the light of endless scandals over the ruling SDPL and LP and their leaders Brazauskas and Uspaskich. No scandal at all. And in Mar Paulauskas was already among the most popular politicians, and, most importantly, his party took the 3^rd place from their “elder brothers” from the SDPL. Though still the leader, the LP has lost its big popularity lead over its rivals and now has only 3% more than the 2^nd place Pro Patria.

The other reason may be general benefit. With no more Paulauskas, the opposition, first of all, the right-wing Pro Patria gets new votes, the 2^nd place very close to the LP and a good chance to maneuver – up to reviving the idea of “a rainbow coalition,” i.e. a new coalition with one or several presently ruling “left-wing” parties. The haggle for offices will be decisive here.

This also benefits the Labor Party, whose leader Viktor Uspaskich had to lump the place of the 2^nd party of the coalition despite his victory in the last parliamentary elections. He failed to become Prime Minister and was even forced to resign from Economy Minister after the scandal over his allegedly faking his diploma and giving Euro-money to “his” firms. Now the LP has hope for better positions in the new coalition.

But the situation is not as dramatic as it may seem at the first glance – the New Union has only two ministerial offices and is not the key player in the coalition. It got into the Seym only because it got into electoral alliance with the Social-Democratic Party of Lithuania (led by Algirdas Brazauskas), and it was due to the selfsame alliance that Paulauskas got the office of Speaker. Then media wondered how the leader of such a small party (only 11 seats of 141) could lead the Seym. A speaker from the biggest faction – Labor Party (39 seats) – would be something much more logical. That’s what the LP is seeking now.

Žinių radijas reports the LP leader Viktor Uspaskich to say at a meeting of the party’s faction Apr 12 that they may nominate for Speaker the present Vice Speaker of the Seym and Vice Chairman of the LP Viktoras Muntnianas. This means that in case of a new coalition the LP may also seek the Premiership.

Meanwhile, Lietuvos radijas reports Brazauskas to say on April 13 that he will continue leading the coalition after the secession of the Social Liberals, but the remaining three parties will search for possible substitutes: “We will search for ways to reinforce our coalition.”

Apr 12 the three parties from the former coalition – LP, SDPL and Party of Peasants (with only one ministerial seat) signed a new coalition agreement: Algirdas Brazauskas remains Premier, one of the Labor Party leaders Viktoras Muntianas becomes Seym Speaker (Lietuvos žinios). Brazauskas says that the two ministerial officers left by the New Union may also be given to the LP (Delfi). This is logical as the LP has more seats in the Seym than the SDPL. Earlier it was not an obstacle: the Social Democrats took half of the Cabinet and the office of Premier. But now the situation is different, and they will have to give in.

Development Scenarios The ruling majority will continue its work in three-party format, but then it will lose its majority in the Seym and the government may find it had to push its policy through necessary laws and decrees.

The second scenario is the search for new fourth member, some small party: right-of-center Union of Liberals and Center, their break away Movement of Liberals, MPs from Polish and Russian parties and Liberal Democrats and possibly some MPs from the New Union or even the opposition.

Finally, the third scenario is “rainbow majority.” The right-wing Pro Patria Union unites with the SDPL and some other small centrist parties. But this is one of the least realistic scenarios given the antagonism between the ruling left-wings and the opposition right-wings. The more realistic “rainbow” is alliance with “the forces of the center” – the Union of Liberals and Center, their break away Movement of Liberals and the “left center,” ex coalition member Social Liberals.

View of the President and the Premier In the meantime, LTV reports the spokesperson of the Lithuanian president Rita Grumadaite to say on behalf of Adamkus that the government must continue its work in the same format, and the parties must not take any radical actions in order to avoid possible destabilization, especially now that the country is facing a serious task to distribute the EU money. “Adamkus urges the politicians not to play with the fate of their state,” reports Delfi.

Žinių radijas reports Premier Algirdas Brazauskas to believe that the status quo will be preserved. He says that the government will hardly resign, though some ministers may. The petition for resignation by Social Security and Labor Minister Vilia Blinkiaviciute has not yet been satisfied. BTV says that Blinkiaviciute may go from the Social-Liberals to the Social-Democrats. At the same time, the LP leader Uspaskich openly said that Blinkiaviciute might be in his party. Such a person would be a godsend for both the Social-Democrats and the Laborers as she is one of the most popular politicians in Lithuania, almost as popular as the most popular President Adamkus.

The position of the New Union and the reaction of the dismissed speaker The New Union met Apr 12 to decide that it is leaving the coalition and its members are leaving their offices in the Cabinet and the Seym. The presidium of the New Union decided that there are “neither legal nor moral reasons” for staying in the ruling coalition.

To remind, according to the coalition agreement, the Social-Liberals had two ministerial portfolios: leaving their offices are Foreign Minister Antanas Valionis and Social Security and Labor Minister Vilia Blinkiaviciute. ELTA reports that Valionis, who is visiting China and South Korea, sent in his resignation Apr 11, the day Paulauskas was impeached. Blinkiaviciute followed suit.

Following the NU’s decision to break away from the ruling coalition, the NU members chairing Seym committees and other parliamentary structures are also leaving their posts: going to resign are the chairman of the committee on defense and national security Alvidas Sadiackas, the chairman of the commission on ethics and proceedings Algirdas Monkiavicius, the head of the Seym delegation to the Baltic Assembly Valery Simulik. But all of them will be able to resign only when the Seym approves their resignation.

Paulauskas himself says that the MPs who voted against him just want to re-divide the cake of power and to enhance their influence in the coalition. He expected that: “That’s exactly what I expected. I knew this was going to end like that.” Paulauskas does not regret he had not resigned before the voting. “Today nobody can reproach me for ruining the coalition.”

Revenge of the Labor Party Gaining the most from this situation is the Labor Party, who has finally got exactly as much offices as it won seats in the parliament. “Officially Paulauskas was dismissed because of the ‘privilege scandal’ in his office. But in the Seym’s lobby their say that he was dismissed because of the LP’s wish to gain bigger influence in the coalition” (Kauno diena).

True, Viktor Uskaspich will have to give up his hope for the Premiership for his party in the face of Brazauskas’ firm wish to stay Premier. Apr 12 he said that his party would seek the office of Premier. Asked by journalists if the LP would seek the Premiership, Uspaskich said: “I think yes.”

But failing to get the post of Premier, the LP got the office of Seym Speaker – the second post in the country after the President.

Apr 13, on behalf of 53 MPs, the leader of the LP faction Loreta Grauzinene nominated for the post the Vice Speaker of the Seym Viktoras Muntianas. Muntianas agreed to stand for the post. He enjoys the support of at least three parties of the ruling coalition – the Labor Party, the Social Democrats and the Peasants, who have 71 of 141 votes in the Seym. To be elected Muntianas needs more than half of the parliamentary votes. But he has no rival.

New Speaker of the Seym Apr 13 the Seym elected Viktoras Muntianas the Speaker. 75 MPs voted “pro,” 56 ones “contra.” In the last two years Muntianas has made a dazzling career from the mayor of a provincial town to the second person in the state. Quite unknown in the politics, he owes his political success to Viktor Uspaskich. He is the former vice president of Uskaspich’s Vikonda concern, then member of the Kedainiai district administration, then mayor of Kedainiai, a town many call Uskaspich’s “patrimony” – it was there that he started his business.

When before the parliamentary elections Uspaskich decided to knock together a party, Muntianas was appointed as his first deputy. Muntianas got to the Seym from the Kaunas-Kedainiai electoral district. After the LP’s victory he became the Vice Speaker.

Muntianas was born in Mariampol on November 11, 1951. In 1978 he graduated from Vilnius Engineering Institute (presently Vilnius Technical University) as engineer-constructor.

Possible new FM LTV reports that the next FM may well be the acting Lithuanian Ambassador to the US Vigaudas Usackas. The relevant talks are underway. Usackas is 41 years old. He is lawyer. He was Lithuania’s representatives for relations with NATO, the director of the FM politics department, Vice FM. He held Lithuania-EU accession talks. He has not been involved in scandals and political games so far. This is his advantage over his predecessor, Antanas Valionis, who was reserve KGB officer – a fact proved by a Seym commission. However, he was left in office due to his “usefulness.” Usackas is also known for his tough statements against Russia. Experts says that if Usackas is appointed as Foreign Minister, Lithuania will become more diplomatic and more balanced in its relations with neighbors.

Those yearning for power

Ex President Rolandas Paksas wants to come back into power One more surprise for experts was the readiness of the Liberal Democratic Party of Lithuania (LDPL), led by dismissed politician Rolandas Paksas, to take part in the formation of a new coalition and the readiness of the Social-Democrats to consider this possibility. Until recently everybody has thought that nobody will any more cooperate with the party of the ex president they removed by general effort. On the other hand, all these years the Liberal Democrats have acted as an unyielding party that fights for the interests of ordinary people against the “elite,” "old nomenclature. "

But Apr 12 the LDPL leader Paksas told journalists that now that the new coalition will search for a force to replace the NU, his party may get involved in the formation of a new ruling majority. He makes no secret that he has personal ambitions to come back into power. Asked if he wants to regain presidency, he said: “I have never made secret I do.”

He said that his party will take part the new coalition building if “justice is restored,” — he probably meant: if the charge against him is withdrawn. Paksas said that the plan of action is ready, but he did not give its details. “We have examined the legal aspects, prepared a plan of action, but we don’t want to make it public yet.”

He says there are 5 evident crises in Lithuania: of the institute of president, of the courts, of the Seym, of the government – and the key crisis is the loss of popular confidence in the political authorities. On the other hand, Paksas does not expect early elections: “I see no ways to hold new elections in the country. This is only talk by politicians.” Here he agrees with the acting president Valdas Adamkus.

Quite unexpectedly Paksas pronounced for giving powers to the Labor Party. He believes that given parliamentary majority the LP, together with the President, should assume the responsibility and form a new coalition “as the old coalition has exhausted itself.” The leader of the Liberal-Democratic faction of the Seym Valentinas Mazuronis believes that the coalition must not be left the same as the “key ‘bombs’ or vice will stay and will lead to quick inevitable collapse.” “A new coalition must be formed according to new principles.” He also said that the Social-Liberals did a right and logical thing when they left the ruling coalition.

Experts say that all these statements imply a situation when the LP, SDPL and Party of Farmers stay in a coalition and make partner with the LDPL. “A party of power” again, the LDPL will stop being a pariah and will raise its authority in the eyes of those who are no fanatically devoted to it. And this will give the party a wider front at the next elections. Paksas hopes that the new ruling coalition will easily revise the verdict of the former Seym that forbid him – as once impeached – to seek any leading posts again. To remind, Paksas’ ally in his fight to retain the presidency and later the key rival of Adamkus in his fight to gain it, the present Economy Minister and the leader of PKN Kazimiera Prunskiene has argued for such a revision from the very beginning. Many Social Democrats were also against the impeachment.

Prop Patria Union and Movement of Liberals ready to forms alternative coalition Meanwhile, the right and right-of-center forces are going to form their own coalition. The Pro Patria Union and the Movement of Liberals are ready to form an alternative ruling majority if representatives of the former majority fail to agree. In their relevant statement Apr 12 the parties say that they are ready to talk about the further work of the Seym and the Cabinet with other parties too, except for the parties of Viktor Uspaskich and Rolandas Paksas.

The right-wing forces rely on the President, who is right wing himself and has always liked them. To remind, on April 12, President Valdas Adamkus and the opposition leader Andrius Kubilius discussed the political situation in the country and possible coalition formats. (ELTA)