US does not want Russia “to close off” Azerbaijan: Azeri press digest

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About Ilham Aliyev’s visit to the US

On April 25, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev started his first official visit to the US. His press service says he was invited by US President George Bush.

In an interview to Echo, well-known Russian political scientist Sergey Markov comments on Aliyev’s visit to the US:

“Some people say that Aliyev has been invited to Washington because of the growing tensions over Iran…

The visit of the Azeri president was planned long ago and is not something extraordinary or unexpected. And Aliyev has gone to the US not because of the tensions over Iran, but because the US wants to pump the Caspian oil to international markets. The White House is not very much eager to support the attempts of ‘orange revolution’ in Azerbaijan. The US is cooperating with Azerbaijan on the BTC project and wants to develop its relations with that country. That’s primarily why Aliyev was invited to the US. The second topic of his US talks may actually be Iran.

You have pointed out that in the light of the forthcoming launch of the BTC Washington is interested in developing its cooperation with Azerbaijan. How will Aliyev’s visit and the following improvement of US-Azeri relations influence Azerbaijan’s relations with Russia?

It’s hard to say. Everything will depend on what decisions are made. Russia likes some aspects of Azerbaijan’s policy. Azerbaijan does not discriminate against local Russians, unlike some other countries. It has some attractive economic projects. But there are thing Russia doesn’t like. Particularly, the BTC is very much against Russia’s interests. Russia does not like Azerbaijan’s involvement in GUAM. Russia would not like possible problems with the use of the Gabala radar station or the Caspian Sea. It would certainly dislike seeing GUAM-US military-police forces in the Caspian Sea. So, everything will depend on what decisions are made.

What do you think about the prospect of US troops deployment in the Azeri territory? How would the Kremlin react to this?

Russia’s reaction would be negative. We don’t like when anybody’s troops move along our borders. Besides, in the last years US troops have been a factor of instability.

The agenda of the Washington talks includes the Armenian-Azeri Nagorno Karabakh conflict. Many say that 2006 may be decisive for the issue. Do you expect Washington to pressure Armenia into withdrawing its troops from the occupied Azeri lands?

Today, the US can’t pressure Yerevan. Elections are coming up, and the present White House administration would not like to spoil its relations with the very influential Armenian community.

Some people say that one of the reasons why the Azeri president was not invited to Washington for a long time was the problem of democracy in Azerbaijan. Has the US revised its principles in our region and has the problem democracy lost its urgency?

I think it has. By its behavior the US shows that geo-political interests and oil are more important for it than democracy.

Nevertheless, they in the US say that they are concerned for the fate of the huge oil dollars that will start flowing into our country this year…

I don’t think that the Americans are very much concerned for how Azerbaijan will use its money. It’s not very big money for them, and they will hardly give special attention to this problem.”

In its turn, the Washington Post qualifies the visit of President Aliyev to the US as “retreat from the freedom agenda.” It runs further: “In late February Putin arrived in Azerbaijan as head of a large delegation and proceeded to buy everything Aliyev would sell, including a commitment to export more oil through Russia.” “We don't want to see Azerbaijan closed off by the Russians, because that will close off the energy alternative to Russia for Europe,” an official said. He added: “If Azerbaijan falls under Russian influence there will be no democracy agenda there at all.” In short, the race for energy and an increasingly bare-knuckled contest with Moscow for influence over its producers have caused the downgrading of the democracy strategy…"

About Iran

“Iran is ready to help Azerbaijan to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict,” Iranian Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammad Najjar said in Baku. “We have always supported Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and will do that in the future too,” Najjar said during his Baku meeting with Azeri Defense Minister Safar Abiyev. Abiyev said: “Iran should certainly assist its brother Azerbaijan in attaining a fair solution to the conflict. Our close relations give us good reason to think so.” (New Time)

“The US has been threatening Iran for 27 years already. This is no news for us. We have never been afraid of the Americans. They threaten us only in words,” Iranian Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammad Najjar said in Baku on April 20. He said that despite all threats his country will continue developing its relations with the world community: “All problems should be solved by talks. Azerbaijan is Iran’s neighbor and brother. My visit is one more proof of Iran’s interest in enlarging its relations with Azerbaijan. I think that Azeri President Ilham Aliyev can suggest the US authorities a right direction in their relations with Iran,” Najjar said. He noted that Iran does not want any third country to mediate in the resolution of the US-Iranian conflict. He said that Iran wants to enlarge its military cooperation with Azerbaijan: “We are planning to enlarge our bilateral relations. We have new spheres for that. We also have an agreement. We will try to remove all possible obstacles.” (525th Daily)

“What is behind Najjar’s visit to Baku? Experts are sure that the visit was not just for protocol,” says Echo daily. “We know that shortly after Najjar’s visit President Aliyev will go to Washington to meet with Bush. And shortly after Aliyev’s return, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will come to Baku to take part in the March 4-5 summit of the Organization for Economic Cooperation. But the question is: is it the only reason Ahmadinejad is coming to Baku and isn’t this striking coincidence a proof that Baku is secretly mediating between Tehran and Washington?”

Independent military expert Uzeir Jafarov says to Echo that this is exactly the case. “You know that the former Iranian Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani visited Baku not very long ago, last autumn. So, I’m sure that the new Iranian DM came to Azerbaijan with some urgent tasks. The problem of Iran has gone beyond any thinkable limits of tension, and now much will depend on Aliyev’s visit to the US. I think Aliyev will face a serious exam in the US and the key question will be Iran. I don’t think that Najjar will ask Aliyev for something. No. He will just once again explain Iran’s position – that if being attacked, Iran reserves the right to strike the US’ painful points – economic and military – one of which is Azerbaijan. And so, Najjar will most probably remind our president that if our country takes part in such an attack, we will face not very pleasant consequences. So, Najjar has come to Baku not without purpose and not with empty hands. After Aliyev’s return, President Ahmadinejad will get first hand information, i.e. the last person who will get reliable information on Bush’s plans on Iran will be our president, and Ahmadinejad is very much hopeful to get this valuable news from Aliyev.”

“Iranian Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammad Najjar would like the Azeri top officials to give guarantees that Azerbaijan’s territory will by no means be used in possible military operations against Iran. But this time, the Azeri leaders were much more restrained in their statements. Neither DM, nor FM, nor the president yielded to the compliments of the Tehran emissary,” says Zerkalo. “And promises of defense cooperation came raining down on us. They even were ready to help their brothers to build their defense industry. But the problem is that we don’t need their help in building our own defense industry. It may look a bit strange. Iran has no borders with either Israel or Palestine, but for Palestine it is ready to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. But when it comes to ‘brotherly Azerbaijan,’ with whom Iran has not only common border but also common religious ideology, it starts cooperating with an aggressor, who has occupied 16% of the territory of this very ‘brotherly country.’ In one word, Azerbaijan has no reasons for being ‘brotherly grateful’ to the Tehran regime.”

“We are against any US military actions in Iran, in whatever format they might be planned,” the political refugees from Tabriz, the spokesman for the World Azerbaijanis Congress Ali Nijat says to Echo. “…Because the key blow will be on the biggest Iranian ethnic group, Southern Azeris and on Northern Azerbaijan. We are neighboring states: a vast horde of people may rush here from the south, and Azerbaijan will not be able to provide them even with the least they will need. Bush has mentioned the possibility of a nuclear blow on Iran – this may be similar to what happened in Hiroshima: hundreds of thousands of innocent Iranians will die, radiation will cover Azerbaijan and other neighboring countries. That’s why we are clearly against the US attack on Iran.”

“Very many Iranians have begun coming and buying property in Baku of late,” the director of the Migration Resource Center Azer Allahveranov says to Echo. “They did that for over a year already. However, the point is that in 2006 they began doing that much more actively. This may partially be due to the possible threat of US air strike on Iran, but this may also be due to favorable situation in Baku: today it is very easy to buy a modern comfortable house here, we have very many new houses and free apartments that are sold on a long-term mortgage basis. But a nuclear blow on Iran will certainly spur a big inflow of Iranians into Azerbaijan. We are a neighbor country, and the experience shows that neighbor countries are usually the first place people flee to from the countries in war.” Allahveranov says: “The Azeri authorities must be ready for such developments. Is Azerbaijan ready to receive one more million of refugees? I think no. We will face a humanitarian crisis if more than 100,000 refugees come from Iran. But the international law says that we can’t stop those fleeing war. We’ll have to open special check points for refugees, that is, for people who will want to get this status in Azerbaijan. Very many Iranians are already running own businesses in Azerbaijan and are involving their relatives in them. Obviously, there will be some air strikes on Iran. And our government must clearly foresee their possible migration consequences.”

“The US is going to win Azerbaijan to its side and to use its territory as a spring-board. But I am sure that Washington will fail,” Ambassador of Iran to Azerbaijan Afshar Suleimani says in an interview to Makor Rishon daily (Iran). He says that the US is facing many regional and international problems. It has serious problems in Iraq and Afghanistan. The international community, particularly, the UK, Russia and China, is against its attack on Iran. Suleimani says that the reports that the US and the UK are holding joint anti-Iranian attack drills are a new stage of the psychological war against his country. He is sure that Azerbaijan will abide by the mutual non-aggression and cooperation agreement it concluded with Iran in 2002. In any case, Iran is ready for war, but hopes for diplomatic solution."

Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran Ali Larijani says that US anti-Iranian intelligence groups are acting in Azerbaijan. In an interview to Al Ahram weekly (Egypt) Larijani says that the territories of Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are being used by the US special services against Iran. A few days before Al Ahram reported that in case of war, Iran will strike the Baku-Tbiisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline. The Iranian missiles can hit the US and European oil facilities in the Caspian Sea. In his interview Larijani does not exclude the possibility of such developments.

Echo notes that this new charge against Azerbaijan was made right after the visit of Iranian Defense Minister Mustafa Mohammad Najjar to Baku, during which he refused to admit the fact of Iran’s military cooperation with Armenia. Besides, Larijani’s statements preceded the visit of the Iranian president to Baku. “Iran is pressuring Azerbaijan from different sides. If you remember, Iran urged Azerbaijan not to open its embassy in Israel, then — to limit its relations with the US,” MP, ex Azeri Ambassador to Iran Nasib Nasibli says to Echo, commenting on Larijani’s statements. The head of the information policy and press department of the Azeri foreign ministry Tair Tagizade says that “if Larijani has actually made such a statement, his source may have been unreliable.”

Karabakh problem

“In a few days the Azeri army will attack the occupant-neighbors,” www.hurhaber.com reports on April 19, with reference to diplomatic sources. The Turkish web-site says that the Azeri authorities have been seriously preparing for the “liberation” of Karabakh and have decided to start war. The intensive relations between the US and Azerbaijan are also due to this fact. www.hurhaber.com says that President Bush approves of Azerbaijan’s intention to start military actions in Nagorno Karabakh.

Azerbaijan has not received from Washington any official proposals on the resolution of the Armenian-Azeri conflict over Nagorno Karabakh, Trend reports Azeri Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov as saying. No document or new draft proposals have been submitted to Azerbaijan. “They have only suggested specific ideas on the establishment of normal relations with Armenia after the completion of the military conflict,” says Azimov. He notes that the liberation of the Azeri territory will become the first step in the resolution of the conflict. Azerbaijan does not support war. “We are interested in continuing the peace talks. ‘Concerning the growing number of meetings by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, Azimov says that he does not expect much progress from these meetings. (Trend)

’The last statements of Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan are constructive and show commitment to the process of peace talks,” the head of the information and press department of the Azeri Foreign Ministry Tair Tagizade says to Trend. On April 20, Oskanyan said that “if Azerbaijan recognizes the right of the Nagorno Karabakh people to determine its status on its own, Armenia is ready to seriously discuss the problems related to the liquidation of the consequences of the war.” Earlier he said: “If Azerbaijan agrees that the Nagorno Karabakh people has the right to self-determination, which can be exercised not at once but at some time in the future, the Armenian side is ready to start discussing the problems related to the liquidation of the consequences of the war: territories, refugees, other security problems.” “This statement proves that the Armenian side is going to actively participate in the peace talks for the resolution of the Armenian-Azeri Nagorno Karabakh conflict,” says Tagizade. “De facto this statement proves the adherence of the Armenian side to the ‘stage-by-stage’ resolution scenario: at the first stage, Armenia withdraws its troops from the districts around Nagorno Karabakh (this also includes mine clearance, restoration of roads, return of refugees, security), and the second stage is the determination of Nagorno Karabakh’s status,” says Tagizade.

As regards Nagorno Karabakh’s self-determination, Tagizade says that it is well possible within Azerbaijan. “This is exactly the highest autonomy status we are talking about. So, we can assume that the Armenian side has confirmed its commitment to the peace process and has realized what its national interests are,” says Tagizade. Commenting on Oskanyan’s statement that Armenia is going to join the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline and is already negotiating with the US on the matter, Tagizade says that Armenia cannot negotiate with the US for a number of reasons. One reason is that no regional projects are possible without Azerbaijan – either as an exporter, or as a transit country. “Our cooperation with Armenia will be possible only after the resolution of the conflict and the liquidation of its consequences,” says Tagizade.