Azerbaijan in zugzwang: interview with Sardar Jalaloglu

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Azeri President Ilham Aliyev has started his visit to the US on April 25. If the official agenda of his visit is widely known, his “offstage” talks with US President George Bush are widely discussed. In an interview to REGNUM one of the leaders of the Azeri opposition, the first vice chairman of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan Sardar Jalaloglu gives his view of the true reason of Aliyev’s visit to the US.

REGNUM: Why was President Aliyev invited to the US exactly now and not one or two years ago?

Now the US has several priorities in Azerbaijan. The first priority is to control the oil of the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea or, if possible, of the whole Caspian basin. The second priority is to resolve the Karabakh conflict as soon as possible to be able to safely and uninterruptedly pump up oil from the Caspian Sea and also, possibly, to launch military actions against stubborn Iran next spring. The third priority is to spread democracy over the world and to ensure civil freedoms.

It was exactly because of Azerbaijan’s poor democracy — mass fraud during the last presidential and parliamentary elections, maltreatment of the opposition and dispersal of its rallies — that the White House refrained from inviting Aliyev. And now he was invited exactly because of the growing tensions over Iran, the necessity of early resolution in Karabakh and early launch of the “big pipe” – Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan.

REGNUM: Can one or another geo-political situation force Azerbaijan to take direct or indirect part in the anti-Iranian coalition the US is said to be knocking together?

I think that the extent of Azerbaijan’s involvement in the anti-Iranian coalition is the key topic of the coming meeting of the US and Azeri presidents. This is exactly why Bush has closed his eyes on the anti-democratic nature of the Azeri authorities and has grudgingly welcomed Aliyev. The situation Azerbaijan is facing now is called zugzwang in the chess terminology – any move leads to defeat. But the country still has one move – to equally distance itself from the US and Iran. I hope that Aliyev will manage to do it.

REGNUM: Will they in Washington pressure the Azeri President in the Karabakh issue?

I should note that the Karabakh problem cannot be solved without Russia’s consent. Even if Aliyev yields to a hypothetical pressure and concedes, that will not be a final solution. Of course, they will talk about the Karabakh problem, but I don’t believe they will make a serious breakthrough without considering Moscow’s interests and positions. I also doubt that Washington will pressure Baku in the issue.

REGNUM: Will the sides discuss other issues and what agreements may they conclude?

I think that the US President will certainly mention the problems of human rights, fair elections, political and economic reforms, democracy development in Azerbaijan. Aliyev will certainly give an oral consent to the US President just as his father did. In any case, the pragmatic US administration itself is not very much eager to develop democracy in Azerbaijan, which was proved by the last autumn parliamentary elections and the post-electoral period, including the severe dispersal of the November 26 rally. Even if signed, the possible written agreements will be just declarations without specific content.

REGNUM: Some experts say that in his time Aliyev Senior gave Washington a number of promises his son is forced to keep now. Is that true?

Aliyev Senior publicly told Clinton that he would develop democracy in Azerbaijan without fail. As you remember, after that the sides signed the Contract of the Century and other oil contracts. Heydar Aliyev readily gave similar promissory notes in the UN and other international organizations. And when he was asked about results, he artfully found thousands of convincing explanations why democratic processes in his country were slow. Though assuring everybody that he continues the cause of his father, Ilham Aliyev has, in fact, disavowed his promises. One example is his proposal to start the Karabakh peace talks from zero. It seems he has started from zero with the West and Russia too.

Many are misled by external entourage – Heydar Aliyev schools, monuments… But, in reality, Ilham Aliyev is acting differently – even his ways to keep his power are tougher. So, I don’t think that he will be asked to pay the old bills, whatever they are.

REGNUM: What will Aliyev’s Washington voyage give to Azerbaijan and the whole South Caucasus?

Paradoxical as this may sound, an invitation to Washington now – after two long years of hope — is the last thing Aliyev would want to get. He will hardly get anything in such a complicated and highly tensed international situation. As regards the region, it is too heterogeneous for being taken as a whole. In Georgia power is in the hands of democrats, in Azerbaijan and Armenia – illegitimate anti-national regimes. The latter gives much to big importance to its alliance with Russia and forgets that it is a part of the region with all ensuring consequences. So, Aliyev’s visit to Washington will change nothing in either the region or Azerbaijan. Still one can’t rule out the possibility of a fiasco, which will put our country in a fix.

REGNUM: Is the growing number of visits by Iranian leaders to Azerbaijan a coincidence?

Of course not. Iran was very much worried about the forthcoming visit of Aliyev to the US. They in Tehran perfectly realized what the visit will be about and did their best to neutralize Baku. It was for this very purpose that the Iranian military minister came to Baku and offered the country all possible benefits, up to the building of a defense complex. The coming visit of the Iranian president is also for the same purpose, whatever its seeming reasons might be. I would like to say once again that Azerbaijan is facing very serious threats in case of US military operations in Iran: missile strikes (when the losing side already has nothing to lose) on cities, oil pipeline, industrial facilities; an army of refugees – Iranian Azeris; plenty of other secondary problems.