Armenia to obtain its own Saakashvili? Armenian press digest

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Armenian-Russian relations

Presently we are witness to Russia’s progressing retreat from Caucasus and growing US presence there. America’s global goal is to involve Kazakhstan in the Baku-Ceyhan project in order to cut Russia off the geo-politics in Caucasus and Central Asia, political scientist Andranik Migranyan said during the international scientific conference “Caucasus Without Conflicts and Terrorism: Dialogue of Civilizations on the Caucasian Crossroads” in Yerevan. He says that in its regional plans the US relies mostly upon countries that are unable to solve their problems on their own. “Absolutely obviously, Georgia cannot get back Abkhazia and South Ossetia and hopes for the US’ help. And the US is making use of it. However, all the attempts of Russia and the US to use Georgia for pushing each other out of the region are doomed to failure. Even if helped by the US, Georgia will still fail to solve its internal problems,” says Migranyan. (PanARMENIAN.Net).

“The whole post-Soviet area and the South Caucasus, in particular, is getting internationalized – new players are entering the region – the US, the EU,” the head of the international relations department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, candidate of historical sciences Sergey Markedonov says in an interview to REGNUM. “However, one should not get hysterical and say that Russia is stampeding from Caucasus.” “Simply, Russia will have to learn to work in new conditions as nobody can prevent internationalization or force the US or the EU out of the region.” “Both the US and Russia are interested in secular Azerbaijan, both are interested in the settlement of conflicts in the post-Soviet area. Russia has one way-out – to give up illusions, to start rivaling and to step up its peacemaking efforts, particularly, in Karabakh,” says Markedonov.

Russian MP, the director of the CIS Institute Konstantin Zatulin, who came to Yerevan for participating in the international conference “Caucasus Without Conflicts and Terrorism: Dialogue of Civilizations on the Caucasian Crossroads,” says that “the problems related to the South Caucasus have always been solved by external forces,” says Iravunk daily. Zatulin says that although today Russia is not as strong as it was in the Soviet times, “Russia is still closer to the South Caucasus than the US is and understands its problems better and deeper than the US does.” “Even more, Russia wants peace in the region most of all – even in the unrecognized republics.” Zatulin says that Russia is closer to the Caucasus than the US is and, consequently, does not want “anybody to ‘warm-up’ in this region like they did in Iraq.”

“The gas issue” in Armenian-Russian relations has no political implication, professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, member of the Public Chamber of Russia, political scientist Andranik Migranyan says to ARKA. “I don’t think that the rise in the gas tariff for Armenia has anything to do with Armenia’s involvement in the NATO IPAP. I would not link it either with the so-called ‘cooling down’ between Moscow and Yerevan.” Migranyan says that Russia is transiting to market relations with not only European but also CIS countries, and the rise in the gas tariffs is the result of this policy.

“A state cannot be a member of two military organizations at once: if we are members to the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization – REGNUM), it is, mildly speaking, wrong to speak about membership in NATO,” the chief of the General Staff of Armenia’s Armed Forces, General Mikayel Haroutyunyan says to A1+. He says that he does not encourage any kinds of statements about the necessity of joining NATO. “We know the policy of our state and our position on NATO: we say we will take part in various NATO programs, but always note that we have no plans to join that organization. Probably, we’ll need to do it at some time in the future but today we are part of an absolutely different security system – the CSTO,” says Haroutyunyan. Asked if Armenia is sufficiently safe within the CSTO, Haroutyunyan says: “Armenia’s security depends, first of all, on us, then, on the CSTO and, finally, on our relations with NATO and NATO member-states.” Haroutyunyan says that this scheme is the most effective way to ensure the country’s security.

The head of the comparative political science department of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, doctor of political sciences Mikhail Ilyin answers ArmInfo’s questions:

“What do you think about the present level of Armenian-Russian relations?”

Armenian-Russian relations have been developing quite positively throughout their modern history and now too they are good on both governmental and public levels.

How strong are these relations? Before the late 2004 events the Ukrainian-Russian relations were also unclouded. Is there any guarantee that nothing like that will happen with Armenian-Russian relations?

There is no guarantee at all, in the politics there is always a good deal of improvisation and uncertainly. However, we have quite a big potential of cooperation and only very serious circumstances can break it.

In 2008, both Armenia and Russia are to elect presidents and are consequently expected to face internal political problems. Can the presidential campaign divert Moscow’s attention from our region?

Naturally, internal problems can overshadow many international concerns, but this will last for a very short period, if happens at all. In fact, very many international problems may be included in the agenda of the presidential election. Among them are certainly the Iranian problem, the general situation in the Caspian region, the problem of oil transit in the region, the problem of oil and gas transit between Russia and Western Europe and the relatively recent problem of fuel supplies to the East, first of all, to China and Japan. All these problems can be very closely related to the internal political agenda. (ArmInfo, the interview is abridged)

Aib-Fe daily reports the former leader of the Rodina party, deputy of Russia’s State Duma Dmitry Rogozin to urge to set up in Russia a structure similar to the Armenian Revolutionary Federation “Dashnaktsoutyun” (ARFD). In an interview to The Russian Line internet-daily, he urges to use the experience of “other peoples in exile.” He says: “Let’s take Dashnaktsoutyun as an example. It was the key anti-Turkish force in the times of the Armenian Genocide in the Ottoman Empire. Then the Armenians were scattered all over the world, but they had Dashnaktsoutyun, who had offices in different countries. It had an international bureau that solved key problems and had its creative elite. The center coordinated a very wide range of initiatives – political and women’s organizations, youth unions, journalists’ associations. We should form a similar structure.”

Orinats Yerkir party withdraws from the ruling coalition

During the May 22 parliamentary session, Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Artur Bagdassaryan officially filed his resignation. The parliament’s regulations say that he should confirm his decision within 5 days. He said he was going to resign on May 12. A day before the political council of his Orinats Yerkir party decided to withdraw from the ruling coalition. Bagdassaryan said that this decision was due to intra-coalition differences on internal and foreign political issues and democracy development. (Novosti Armenia)

Aravot says that the withdrawal of OY means the breakup of the coalition — as point 8 of the memorandum on the formation of the coalition says: “The early break up of the coalition is possible: a) if one of the parties leaves it because of differences over crucial issues; b) if all the parties agree to it.” In this particular case, we have both and, consequently, the coalition no longer exists. Aravot wonders how come then that the ARFD and the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) are going to share the posts given to Orinats Yerkir by the memorandum.

As if in response to Aravot’s question, the leader of the RPA parliamentary faction Galust Sahakyan says to Iravunk daily: “Though no longer with Orinats Yerkir, the coalition has preserved its format in the framework of earlier agreements. Simply it is enlarging its scope of cooperation and is giving substantial levers to other factions – People’s Deputy, United Labor Party…”

4^th Power daily says: “Robert Kocharyan certainly understands that dangerous for him is not only the victory of the opposition during the elections 2007 but also the landslide victory of the RPA-Serzh Sarkisyan tandem. And in order to prevent this tandem from polling more votes than necessary, he makes two moves: he sends Artur Bagdassaryan ‘on mission’ to the opposition and steps up the PR-campaign of Samvel Babayan (ex-commander of the Defense Army of Karabakh — REGNUM).”

It’s hard to say if Artur Bagdassaryan took this step on his own will or if it was just some agreement, for example, “the opposition seizure” of the presidential seat, a scenario drafted together with Kocharyan, says Taregir daily.

168 Zham reports that Bagdassaryan has started negotiations with the parliamentary opposition and is persuading them to leave the parliament. This is the only chance for him to get a place in the opposition, says the daily. “In fact, the objective of Bagdassaryan’s action was to convince the people and the opposition that he is the very charismatic leader the opposition has been searching for in vain for so long. However, Bagdassaryan has understood that resigning was not enough, he needs one more step to become ‘N1’ in the opposition.”

Armenian Defense Minister Serzh Sarkisyan does not see any political crisis after the resignation of the speaker of the Armenian parliament Artur Bagdassaryan. In a talk with journalists he called this issue “not topical.” (Aib-Fe)

The director of the Sociometer sociological center Agaron Adibekyan says that the people perfectly know that “the coalition was a temporary compromise for power division.” “It would be quite a different question if the coalition had clear political line, specific steps and goals, but it was just a coalition of operational governance. If there was a problem, the coalition members solved it, if there was no problem, they went together to dine in a restaurant. If leaving the coalition were the Dashnaks, it would be already a serious political crisis. Orinats Yerkir was just a newcomer in the politics, while the withdrawal of a party who has always been in power would have quite a different effect,” Adibekyan says in an interview to Azg daily.

Political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan says that the parliamentary crisis will liven up the political life for some time, but in a week or two, at longest, everything will take its normal course. (Hayots Ashkharh)

The pro-governmental parliamentary parties are living really happy times, says 168 Zham: “Just a year before the elections a whole group of Armenian businessman deputies, with their purses in hand, are searching for new insurance policies on the political stock exchange.”

After the withdrawal of the 20-member Orinats Yerkir from the coalition, the parliamentary majority has stopped to exist, says Aravot daily and adds: “In normal countries when the government loses parliamentary majority it resigns.”

Will Bagdassaryan become another Saakashvili?

The focus of public attention in Armenia continues to be the withdrawal of the Orinats Yerkir party from the coalition and the resignation of Artur Bagdassaryan. A1+ has asked 549 visitors of its web-site why this happened. 33% say that Bagdassaryan was pressured by Robert Kocharyan, 20% that he did that to raise his popularity, 6% that this was due to a conflict between the RPA and the ARFD, 3% that it was “a coalition step.” 38% are sure that what is going on around Orinats Yerkir is a political game coordinated with Robert Kocharyan.

Taregir daily says that the resignation of Artur Bagdassaryan and his joining the opposition gives cause for comparing him with Mikhail Saakashvili. While comparing the two figures – both, while in offices (Saakashvili as Justice Minister — REGNUM), were known for their pro-western views and criticism of passive fight against corruption – the daily tries to make some forecasts. It says that Bagdassaryan (like Saakashvili in his time) will not take any active steps against the authorities before the elections.

Taregir reminds that in his sensational interview to a German newspaper the ex speaker warned that there will be inevitable shocks if the authorities try to falsify the next elections. “In this sense, Bagdassaryan’s key task is to become the leader of the opposition – not at once but well after the parliamentary elections 2007, if his party manages to become the biggest opposition force in the parliament. His resignation from the post of speaker will allow him to show extremely radical attitudes and to earn political dividends. The West will support Bagdassaryan and his party both morally and materially. His popularity may grow very high if next year the government fails to budget the recovery of people’s old deposits, which is quite possible. In such a case, after the parliamentary elections Bagdassaryan will get real chances to become the leader of a popular movement for democracy.”

After the withdrawal of the Orinats Yerkir party from the coalition and the resignation of Artur Bagdassaryan some experts say that Bagdassaryan may become Armenian Saakashvili. Aib-Fe reports the leader of the National Democratic Union party Vazgen Manukyan to disagree: “They are absolutely different people with absolutely different biographies and in absolutely different situations. Perhaps, the only thing they have in common is their height.” Manukyan rejects the suppositions that in the future Bagdassaryan will unite all oppositionists. He says that time will show if he finds his place. He tends to think that the withdrawal of OY from the coalition was just a game: they simply decided to punish Bagdassaryan -and not for controversy over foreign policy but for his regular statements about corruption and electoral fraud. Manukyan says that the parliamentary opposition must not take part in the election of the speaker “as Robert Kocharyan will replace one of his officials by another himself.”

The leader of the opposition Republic party Aram Sarkisyan answers A1+’s questions:

“Artur Bagdassaryan says that our society has quite a big opposition group who will support him…”

It’s early yet to speak about it. Time will show if Orinats Yerkir is actually an opposition party or not, if it is supported by people or not.

Some people say that in the opposition Artur Bagdassaryan is going to rival with you…

I see no reason for rivalry. On the contrary, any figures speaking on behalf of the opposition and accepted by the society can have their own niche and possible political cooperation.

Are you ready to cooperate with Artur Bagdassaryan?

It depends on his actions. I don’t rule out such a possibility.

Do you agree with the opinion that Artur Bagdassaryan is just the authorities’ tool for dispersing the opposition’s votes during the next elections?

I don’t think that Artur Bagdassaryan might agree to such treatment. I don’t think this possible.

Then how could you characterize the processes in the ruling coalition, particularly, the withdrawal of Orinats Yerkir?

To cut it short: it was one more disgrace of our political sphere. (A1+)

Who will become the 7^th speaker of the Armenian parliament?

After the reports about the resignation of the speaker of the Armenian parliament Artur Bagdassaryan several ambassadors of western countries expressed wish to meet with the leader of the People’s Deputy parliamentary group Karen Karapetyan. They in the group’s secretariat have confirmed the fact of the meeting, but have given no details. Still, A1+ has learned that Karapetyan was offered the post of the speaker but rejected it. The negotiations still continue. The news agency reminds that today the People’s Deputy group is the second biggest force in the parliament after the Republican Party.

Many have recently rumored that the leader of the National Unity parliamentary faction Artashes Geghamian is a possible candidate for the post. However, 168 Zham reports Geghamian to say that he does not take these rumors seriously. “Just like those spreading the rumors, I take them with humor,” he says in an interview with the daily.

Reliable sources report that elected to the post of speaker will be the vice speaker Tigran Torosyan. Hayots Ashkharh daily says that the post of vice speaker will be offered to the leader of the People’s Deputy parliamentary group Karen Karapetyan, while the 17-member group will join the ruling coalition.