Sergey Shakaryants: Political false start of Azerbaijan and Azeri nationalists of Iran

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For over ten days already there has been serious destabilization in the Azeri-populated areas of Northern Iran. The first thing that may occur to one who tries to compare what is happening in Northern Iran now with what happened in the world after the appearance of Mohammed cartoons in a Danish newspaper is that the appearance of an insulting cartoon about the “Azeri ethnicity” in one of the leading Iranian dailies might have well been a provocation. It may as well occur to him that both cartoons were “orchestrated” (as a political provocation) by either one hand or two different hands moved by one and the same brain.

In this particular case, everything is seemingly harder. In order to grasp the logic of the whole chain of events, one will have just to remember what preceded the cartoon by the “Iran” daily and the following mass protests by Iranian Azeri-Turks and to compare this with the slogans they are pushing now – now, they are already protesting against Iran’s foreign policy rather than against those who mocked their sacred Azeri language — as they explained at first. In fact, they have no more reason for protesting – it has already been a week since the Iranian authorities arrested the author of the cartoon and the chief editor of the daily and closed the daily itself for an indefinite time.

To a certain extent, we can already see the true motives of the Iranian Azeris. Both the Iranian authorities and the spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (Azeri by nationality) have openly and harshly said what the protesters are actually after and who is behind them. Now that American and British media have begun to actively speculate on how the US might “shake the boat” of internal political stability in Iran before its possible aggression against that country – and quite unambiguously hinting that the Iranian Azeris might well be the key “shaker” – and that the US parliamentarians have already decided to allocate $75 mln for “the fight for democracy in Iran,” there is hardly anybody in Tehran who still believes that the Azeris scanning in the streets actually want their mother tongue to become the second state language in Iran – in fact, everybody understands that pushing them into the streets are US dollars.

We still remember the anti-Iranian calls and slogans made during the 2^nd World Azeri Congress and the following conflict between the Azeri and Iranian authorities. Then, Tehran demanded apology and account for the open “Southern Azerbaijan’s independence” calls by some of the participant Azeris. We can also remember the April 25 press-conference by Jahandar Bayogly, the chairman of the Committee for the Protection of the National Liberation Movement of “Southern Azerbaijan,” presently residing in Baku, when he urged the US to start a war against Iran and noted that “only Southern Azeris can curb terrorism in Iran.” He, in fact, admitted that they in Washington are planning to use the anti-Persian circles of the Iranian-Azeri community for destabilizing the internal situation in Iran.

At the same time, Bayogly tried to mislead the journalists by saying that “many European countries are beginning to despise Iran” i.e. he made a primitive attempt to convince them that some “anti-Iranian international force” is taking shape in the world, who is ready to use “the Southern Azeris” in its war against Iran and that the US is not alone in its desire to start a war against Iran. “The West-Iran relations must be viewed as relations between the West and Azerbaijan. Nobody, including the US, will succeed in the anti-Iranian campaign if he ignores the role and importance of millions of Azeris living in Iran. The only force that can curb terrorism in Iran is Southern Azeris,” Bayogly said. He also pointed to the “fragments” of Turkey’s interest in both the activities of his committee – especially its relations with US official and “unofficial” circles – and the start of the war against Iran: “The West should regard Turkey and Azerbaijan as guarantors of stability in the region and if they start to strike Iran without understanding the attitude of Turkey and Azerbaijan towards the problem, they will face destabilization in a fuel-rich region.” In order to make himself convincing, Bayogly tried to blackmail his audience a bit: “If the West interferes in Iran against the will of Azerbaijan and Turkey, it may face their confrontation. The negligence of the interests of the Turkish and Azeri peoples, including the Iranian Azeris, will lead to even more deplorable results than in Iraq.”

Quite a strange coincidence – appearing in Baku, exactly before “the second phase” of the Azeri protest wave in Iran, was Mahmudali Chehraganly, one of “the key fighters for Southern Azerbaijan’s independence,” the leader of the Movement of the National Awakening of Southern Azerbaijan – a person who was long “removed” from Azerbaijan by the Alievs clan and has lived for a long time in nowhere but London and Washington. Today Bayogly and Chehraganly are the key mouthpieces for those in the Azeri community of Iran and the Azeri Republic who are constantly speaking about growing anti-Azeri repressions in Northern Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian Ambassador to Azerbaijan Afshar Suleymani (Azeri by origin) has officially said that nobody was killed during the first protest action in Tabriz (an action that caused the present instability in Northern Iran).

The world community is already saying that the Iranian authorities shoot at “peaceful demonstrators fighting for their civil rights,” that they recruit some “Kurdish armed groups” against Azeris and so on. The Kurdish factor mentioned by Bayogly and Chehraganly is not just a tribute to fashion. It is also an own political “serve” to the US and Turkey for them to later ask what “Kurdish armed groups” the Iranian authorities exactly use against the anti-Persian Iranian Azeris. And we are almost sure that the US and Turkey may even accuse Iran of playing up with PKK fighters – the selfsame fighters Ankara recently attacked in Iraqi Kurdistan (with the US’ permission). It should be noted that involved in that punitive action were special purpose troops of two countries – Turkey and Iran – who moved towards each other via the territory of Northern Iraq. And now this “mysterious” Turkish-Iranian operation is followed by a “sudden” conflict in Northern Iran — one more strange coincidence.

What is this the Iranian authorities and the international community are actually dealing with? In the last 5-6 days the Azeri protest actions in Iran have turned into thoroughly planned propaganda against Iran’s policy in the world and in the South Caucasus, in particular. Things are beginning to clear up. Even if some cartoon against Iranian Armenians or Arabs might cause some outburst of displeasure, we dare say that neither Armenians nor Arabs nor even the more “disobedient” Turkmens or Belujis would risk doing the same the Iranian Azeris are doing — as they would know that nobody outside Iran would support them.

Meanwhile, those “protesting” in Tabriz went to loot government offices with the flag of a foreign state – neighboring Azeri Republic – and scanned not only “Long Live Azerbaijan!” but also “Down with Armenia!”, “Karabakh Is Ours!” and so on. And what they in Tabriz burned down on May 27 was not Iranian but Armenian flag. Let’s admit that the anti-Armenian “fragments” of the Azeri protests are already a direct sign that they on top in the US, Israel, Turkey and Azerbaijan are getting increasingly annoyed not only with Iran’s international policies but also with its political line in the South Caucasus – with Azerbaijan and Turkey frequently appearing with open charges that Iran “supports” Armenia in the Karabakh and other issues. The decisions of the 2^nd World Azeri Congress made just a month ago are also part of this chain.

Now let’s add all this to the open efforts Washington has been making in the last two-three months to get rid of “the Karabakh headache” and to as much open displeasure of the Americans with Armenia’s efforts to diversify its energy sources with the help of Iran and its reluctance to “get connected” to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzerum pipes. And then we will find a clue to the hidden motives of the allegedly purely anti-Persian actions in Northern Iran, which are nothing but just new ways to keep tensions high there.

Meanwhile, the Azeri authorities are trying hard to pretend they have nothing to do with what is going on. “The attitude of Azeri Embassy towards the disorders in Tabriz and other Iranian cities may be exaggerated,” Azeri Ambassador to Iran Abbasali Gasanov said to Azeri-Press on May 25. “The statements of the Azeri ambassador about the events may cause problems. That’s why, Azerbaijan prefers to regard the events as Iran’s internal affair. Azerbaijan will not comment on the clashes between Azeris and the police. Azerbaijan does not interfere in Iran’s domestic affairs and there are no problems between the two countries,” Gasanov said. The American friends and lobbyists of Azerbaijan and anti-Persian Iranian Azeris are much more sincere. On May 26 the American-Azeri Society urged the UN to take measures against the murders and arrests committed by the Iranian authorities in Southern Azerbaijan. The Society informed the UN that Iranian special service agents opened fire at peaceful ralliers and killed many people: “In Iran peaceful Azeri ralliers are attacked by police, those trying to protect themselves are annihilated.” In Iran Azeris have no rights and freedoms and can’t get education in their native language: “Those who try to protect the rights of Azeris are arrested on charge of Pan-Turkism and anti-national activity. The present Iranian authorities are a devilish regime, who can kill its citizens every minute. The UN Security Council must condemn these actions and pass a severe verdict against the devilish regime in Iran.”

That is, in principle, those people still hope that international forces will interfere in the internal affairs of Iran – at least, like they did in Iraq. In other words, they still believe in “a united anti-Iranian coalition.”

The problem is that the Iranian authorities have already suppressed the protests in the northern provinces and have arrested everybody who “at some American X hour” was supposed to be ready for mass actions of active protest or civil disobedience – for something that could actually blow up the internal political stability in Tehran or even in the whole Iran. Meanwhile, 10 days have already passed but neither the US nor Turkey have done anything to “help out” their fifth pillar in Iran.

It turns out that the Iranian authorities may have been timely warned that there might be some mass anti-national actions by specially trained “pan-Turkic” activists and, well aware that they might have no other chance to show them up, cold-bloodedly allowed the Iranian Azeris to “show themselves off” from May 17 to May 28. In this light, one can’t but agree with the view of the representatives of the Movement of Southern Azerbaijan – Bayogly and Chehraganly – who say that the Iranian authorities are far from panic or confusion. One proof is the warning by the command of the Islamic Revolution Guards that all of their 5 million guards are on high alert, which means that the anti-Persian circles of the Iranian Azeris (and in fact the Azeri Republic itself – if it is privy to the events in any slightest way) have run across the powerful wall of Iran’s “internal defense.” In fact, those who spurred the Iranian Azeris into a fight with the present Iranian authorities have made a gross false start.

Sergey Shakaryants – expert of Caucasus analytical center