Analysts: BTC will hardly influence traditional Russian energy resources markets

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Opinion of some experts that the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline has become Moscow’s geopolitical failure was right for the time several years ago. Today it can hardly be said about great political importance and exclusive character of the new pipeline with the previous unambiguity, Politmonitor reports, noting that countries that oppose themselves to Russia were mostly happy about BTC opening.

Analysts note that the BTC project was designed for the “big oil” from Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli bloc at Azeri section of the Caspian Sea, where the estimated level of extraction was 50 million ton per year and it was supposed to be achieved as early as in the middle of the current decade. However, the “big oil” failed to arrive. Moreover, it can turn out to be unachievable to provide for such filling of the pipeline to make the BTC becomes profitable, analysts say, pointing out that maximum oil extracting level in foreseeable future can reach only 25 million ton. An intermediate solution for the problem was an agreement with Astana about pumping Kazakh oil, which will be 7.5 million ton at the first stage. The oil will be shipped by the Caspian Sea in tankers. Some hopes are tied to exploration of Tengiz, the biggest oil field in Kazakhstan.

Although, today not enough oil is extracted there to allow to speak about charging the pipeline fully, the analysts say. Besides, Kazakh oil is exported trough Tengiz-Novorossiysk oil pipeline belonging to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, estimated capacity of which is 67 million ton per year. Moreover, Kazakhstan is openly saying about its intentions to start exporting oil to China. However, these are not all the problems of the BTC. As the analysts believe, firstly, the pipeline goes through seismically unstable territories (overall, there are ten such zones), secondly, through unstable in military point of view zone of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and insurgent Georgian autonomies, there is some threat from Kurdish rebels in Turkey, and closeness to Iran, Iraq and Syria adds no optimism either.

As for infringing upon Russia’s interests, there will be no shift in the structure of world consuming of energy resources caused by the pipeline. Even in case it reaches its estimated capacity, it will satisfy only 1% of the world demand. Russia is, as it is known, the second country after Saudi Arabia in extracting oil. Thus, the BTC pipeline will hardly have any serious influence upon traditional Russian energy resources markets.