“We are getting into international isolation”: Kyrgyz press digest

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Internal policy

“America is dangerous for Kyrgyzstan!” says Vice Speaker of Russian State Duma Vladimir Zhirinovsky. Last week he came to Kyrgyzstan to visit his relatives, to go around Bishkek, to have a rest on Lake Ysyk Kol, to have two official and one unofficial news conferences, to pose for cameras with local officials and to hug girls from the press. “Komsomolskaya Pravda in Kyrgyzstan” tells its readers what Zhirinovsky said during the news conferences.

“Despite his image of shocking speaker and actor, in Kyrgyzstan Mr. Zhirinovsky was quite friendly and talkative and, most importantly, exclusively positive.” “We keep saying negative things, and this spoils our lives. Let’s talk about positive things only today,” Zhirinovsky said and noted that there were many good things they could talk about. Particularly, the State Program approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin allowing Russians to freely move from Kyrgyzstan to Russian villages for permanent residence will not remain on paper: “Of course, there are idle officials who will refuse to do what they must do because they will not get a pay rise for that, but MPs must pressure them and we will do that! We need workers, we really need them. So, the program you are talking about will be carried out without fail.” Second “positive” thing: Zhirinovsky openly said that he hopes that the new Kyrgyz Constitution will give official status to the Russian language: "Kyrgyzstan must become a zone of the Russian language and security so that tourists from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus be sure that they will be understood here and nobody be afraid lest a terrorist act might happen here, like was the case in Egyptian resorts.

But there are also things Zhirinovsky disapproved of – the American presence in Kyrgyzstan: “It is both useless and dangerous! Just look what the US has done in Iraq and Afghanistan! It’s time for Russia to really consider sharing influence with the US.” What exactly does our Russian guest want our country to be like? That’s what all those present were eager to know. “I would be glad if you preserved Bishkek the way I remember it: green, comfortable… You don’t need those skyscrapers! The world has already got tired of them!” Zhirinovsky cannot forgive Napoleon and Hitler: when asked about World Cup 2006, he said: “In Germany I supported Ukraine because they are almost our team.” “When they failed, I began supporting Italy, and they made me happy. I would support Germany but I remembered the WWII, a war that claimed so many our lives. I would support France but I remembered Napoleon…”

“To find and to crush secret groups of Islamic Radicals is as hard a job for our special services as to fly to Mars,” says Public Rating, while commenting on what is going on in the South of Kyrgyzstan and sadly concludes: “In their present state our special services cannot cope with extremists.” “The gauntlet is thrown down. Our law enforcers have declared a total war on extremist parties. Time will show how much total this war will be but, as of now, Radicals are recruiting more and more people, who will eagerly stand up in arms for their gurus and their ideas. Experts say that in the last five years the army of Hizb ut-Tahrir al Islam (HTI) supporters in Southern Kyrgyzstan has almost tripled to 5,500-6,000 (against 4,000 in 2004). Similar tendency can be observed in neighboring Kazakhstan: if in 2002 the number of HTI supporters in Southern-Kazakh region was 200-250, in early 2006 it was over 2,000.

Experts say that the social basis of radical religious organizations has substantially grown in the last years. High poverty is a fertile soil for radical ideology, which – if actively sponsored by Wahhabi or radically Islamic regimes – flourishes into political Islam. The presence of both components today is fostering radical ideas and paving the way for political Islam in the region. No surprise that the support for religious-extremist organizations here is actively growing.

The last events at the anti-extremist front are quite worrisome politically. The last skirmishes in Southern Kyrgyzstan have shown that Radical Islamists are being replaced by armed fighters. The growing number of sorties of extremists is sure evidence that radical organizations are getting increasingly active. Experts say that most dangerous today are three underground organizations: HTI, Akromiya and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), whose fighters are most active in destabilizing the political situation in Ferghana valley.

As you may know from the press, the Uzbek authorities have officially said that the Andijan events were provoked by Akromiya. Today, Radical Islamic movements are facing a difficult situation. After Andijan the interest in Radical Islamism has begun to decline and the relevant organizations have begun debating about changing their tactics and strategy. For example, HTI has said that in order to revive the interests in political Islamism, the Radicals must stop theorizing about global Islamic revolution and must put this theory into practice in some specific country. That’s why two groups – Hisb an-Nusra and Akromiya – split from HTI in the early 90s. Besides, some influential HTI members continue insisting that they must give up the strategy of non-violence and use force to attain their political and social goals.

Today, it is becoming clear that the growing activity of terrorist groups in Ferghana is the result of ideological crisis in Radical Islamic groups. The political elites of the Radical movements in Central Asia have proved unable to change the situation in their states and to pave the way for Islamic Caliphate. Their Utopian idea to form a united Caliphate in the territory of Ferghana Valley has proved impracticable. That’s why they have decided to replace this mythical theory by the faultless Afghani practice of Islamic terror based on the primitive principles of ‘pure Islam.’ In fact, Kyrgyzstan may shortly get one more strong political force, who will, finally, claim its share of power. As for the moment, there are almost 10 more smaller but as mobile terrorist groups in Ferghana: Tablih, Uzun Sakal (Long Beard), Adolat Uyumshasi (Society of Justice), Islam Lashkorlari (Wars of Islam), Tovba and Nur (Ray). Experts say that these underground terrorist groups are well organized and deeply conspired. And to find and to crash them is as hard a job for our special services as to fly to Mars.”

Force is not enough to give a worthy rebuff to the challenge of extremists, we must raise the living standard in the region, says Public Rating, while commenting on the situation in the south of Kyrgyzstan. “Our government must pay a very close attention to the situation in the South. Extremists and radicals are seizing lands and private property there and are paving the way for ethnic conflicts. Religious extremism is growing despite effective counteraction by law enforcers. Raids by extremists, dissemination of radical literature, use of arms – all this is just the top of the iceberg. In this context, Kyrgyz Prime Minister Felix Kulov forecasts growing conflicts in Ferghana as early as this autumn. Uncontrolled migration from the south to the north, emigration to Russia and Kazakhstan as well as big immigration from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have resulted in a new reality when a solid majority nation has got extremely weak. And those who are eager to spur up new global instability in the region will, certainly, try to use this seemingly harmless circumstance.”

“The NGO ghost is looming large in the country. That’s how we can call the recent hysteria in the media and among state officials. We have already seen something like that – in 2004-2005, a year before the March events.” In its article Tazar daily defends NGOs.

"They have been scaring us with terror. They did that professionally, with the help of incomparably experienced political technologists from abroad. Our authorities remember those “terrors” from time to time – depending on their policy, while in Russia — and not only – they have been fighting dissidence for already a decade – with no stop and with alternate success. Tougher legislation is a curb on democracy. This system is progressing and is revealing lots of things. The growing authoritarianism in Russia is, indeed, something our politicians would very much want to have. That’s why they are ordering articles, making significant statements, dislike everything American. But here too they are cunning. They are taking with one hand and pushing away with the other – something we have seen in the story with the haggle over Gansi.

Before G8 and after the SCO Shanghai Summit, we are still staggering. We are talking again about multi-vector policy, but multi-vector policy means “for all at one and the same time,” while our vectors come up in turn. What we have is not a steady line but a revolving “wind-mill.” Today, wind comes from the north-west, tomorrow from the south-east. The same wind impacts the home policy. The angle of the foreign policy is directly proportional to the freedom of civil institutions – NGOs, mass media, etc.: the more to the north is the latitude, the narrower is their opportunities.

We have the following question for the authorities: can we afford rejecting institutional, material and technical assistance (like loans, debt remittance programs, civil society strengthening projects) today? Naturally, on the one scale, we’ll have national interests, on the other, country, civilization, corporate interests. Is the world community actually so interested in Kyrgyzstan to invest millions and billions of dollars in it, to stage special projects and network wars? Certainly, we are in the whirl of globalization, and there are such interests, but how big are they? Most probably, they are just natural challenges of time, something we should adequately react to — with no hyper-concern for our own “person,” without declaring war on funds, grants, international organizations and, especially, NGOs, who have promoted – both materially and technically — so many state projects

About social partnership. The non-governmental sector is a full participant in Kyrgyzstan’s politics and civil society. There is no sense in persecuting it. It will develop, unlike the “stiff” bureaucratic machine. Only real partnership rather than opposition between these two sectors can guarantee the dynamic development of not only the government but also the whole society.

Foreign policy

“Have they actually sold the honor of the Kyrgyz special services and Foreign Ministry for $150mln?” Have they recalled the note about American spies? In Spiteful Pen program the Kyrgyz ex FM has told about the real price given for the air base in Kyrgyzstan and about the achievements and failures of the Kyrgyz diplomacy. My Capital-News daily has published the interview.

“The outcome of the talks on Gansi – is it a success of the Kyrgyz diplomacy or a proof of its short-sightedness?”

Our leaders and relevant departments have stood somewhat aloof from crucial geo-political problems. They tried to commercialize this problem. Even though the President quoted the well-known literary personage Ostap Bender that “haggle is out of place here” the haggle still took place. Unfortunately, I know nothing about results.

The result is $150mln instead of asked $200mln.

Even if this is true, they have obviously lumped everything together: humanitarian aid, budget support and so on. The air base rent itself is no more than $20mln. Can we consider this a success of the Kyrgyz diplomacy? I don’t think we can. They may have earned some money today but they have seriously lost in their future relations with the US – the strongest power in the world. I don’t know any other country who would openly say it is going to break its relations with that power.

Wasn’t the singing of a protocol on intentions just a tactical step by the US especially as the last say belongs to the Congress?

The signing of this document means that the US is extremely interested in having military presence in Kyrgyzstan and the other Central Asian states, but it’s hard to say yet how the Congress will solve this problem. They in the Bush administration will have yet to convince the Congress that they have done everything right. The US has almost 800 sea, air and other bases in 110 countries. And many of the countries – Japan, South Korea — pay them for security. I am saying this not to just inform my compatriots. In fact, I am speculating what the congressmen will think about when passing the decision. In fact, they believe that the Gansi base is a pledge of security for Kyrgyzstan and not only.

The expulsion of American diplomats from the country took place right before the last round of the air base price talks. How acceptable are such arguments in talks between the sides of so different “weights”?

This is an absolute nonsense on our part. First, the charges are false and groundless. There is Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations: any diplomat has the right to get information by legal means without violating the legislation. Just prove that those diplomats have violated the legislation of Kyrgyzstan and everything will be clear. Besides, it is within the competence of special services rather than Foreign Ministry to deal with such problems. I have not heard them to be charged with any specific crime under the Criminal Code or any other law of Kyrgyzstan. The very fact of expulsion of diplomats is an extraordinary incident between any countries, but in our case, this is the first time, and I think that this problem has a whole complex of sources: the administration, the special services, the FM and some other organizations outside the country – everything has mixed and the whole blame will, finally, be on the FM.

Having exchanged some vague statements, both sides are now silent, while the whole society is puzzled: what facts, what contacts, with what NGOs? After saying that there is such a fact, should both sides have agreed to specify the details? What should this all have resulted in, according to the world practice?

The most primitive scenario would be the expulsion of two our diplomats from the US on a similar charge. In this particular case, the Americans will hardly do that — this is simply ridiculous. They in the world tabloids will simply laugh at them if they exile two Kyrgyz diplomats for something they can’t formulate. Why this problem is pending is something the Kyrgyz side should explain, but they have not given any explanations, so far.

How can Kyrgyzstan come out of this awkward story?

First, I would advise our government to clearly define the interests of our state. If you have no interests on the international arena, you have nothing to defend – you will just keep looking at what other states will say. When you have no own interests and nothing to defend, you generally wait for what your partner will say and, then, try to adjust your concept of interest to what he has said. Unluckily, we have no complex of national interests on the international arena. Yes, we are speaking about investments, about money, in general, about some economic projects, but what is actually happening? During my meeting with the President a few months ago I said that we are getting into international isolation. It seems to me he didn’t understand me quite well. The same is for the other leaders.

The point is that Kyrgyzstan is getting into isolation because of what is going on in our country, because it has no clearly formulated national interests, because big financial flows are bypassing us. What we have got in the past years was just small streamlets driven to our country by international financial institutions, but today they too are bypassing us. We can already see some channels: Russia-Tajikistan-Afghanistan; China-Kazakhstan. The second problem is transport communications. They too are bypassing us: Alashankou-Aktau railroad and highways to Afghanistan. The third problem is energy. However hard we may argue, the whole energy infrastructure is also outside our country. Today the key player in energy in Central Asia is Tajikistan.

During the Shanghai Summit our media spoke about sensations: they said that now we are chairmen and the next summit will be held in Bishkek. Let them have it on their conscience. The main thing they failed to notice was that in Shanghai Tajikistan and China agreed to build electricity transmission lines 500 and 100 worth a total of $340mln. That is, all the important infrastructures that could develop our economy and incorporate us into the world or, at least, regional economy are beginning to pass us by. That’s what I mean when I speak about isolation. That’s why we must decide what we are interested in. As regards the US-related problems, they can be easily solved.

I have repeatedly explained to both administration and FM representatives that the attempt to commercialize the Gansi problem is worthy of respect, in principle, but this must be done accurately with no outer interference. As a matter of fact, the problem of Gansi and its stay in the country depends not on the Kyrgyz government – and we must clearly understand this – but also on the situation in Afghanistan. That’s why the Kyrgyz FM should raise the problem of Afghanistan at the Security Council and leave it up to them to decide what to do with the base: to close or to let it live – or something else.