Kazakhstan analyst: Nobody will recognize Transdnestr independence in the near future

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Transdnestr leaders should be realists; they should realize that nobody will recognize their independence in the near future. Dialogue with Moldavia is unavoidable, whether they want it or not; Kazakh analyst, Risks Assessment Group Director Dosym Satpayev stated in an interview to a REGNUM correspondent. According to him, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are in similar situation. South Ossetia wants to join Russia, but the latter does not wish it, expecting for unambiguously negative reaction of Georgia. Hence, Transdnestr leaders should not figure on Russia’s support, the expert concluded.      

According to Dosym Satpayev, from the point of view of political prospects, future of unrecognized independent states, which were established, after the USSR broke down, and which request their independence and connect their economic and political existence with Russia, is unclear. They will be never recognized by international community; it is not connected with positions of Moldova or Georgia. Probably, it is connected with fact that dangerous precedent will be created, which will be able to start chain reaction in other regions of the world.   

Responding to question, what future should be expected by Transdnestr in next three-five years, the analyst stressed that the referendum was valid only in Transdnestr territory. Because Transdnestr status is not defined in international law, the referendum’s outcomes will not be recognized. Being part of international community, Russia will be forced to maneuver. In general, what support of Transdnestr, Abkhazia, South Ossetia the matter may concern, when Russia opposes against Chechnya’s independence, the analyst concluded.  

As a REGNUM correspondent reminds, Transdnestr referendum was held on Sep 17. 97% of voters supported independence of Transdnestr Moldavian Republic and its further joining the Russian Federation.