Armenia's elections: Society is awaken, politicians dazzled

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If one tries to summarize results of election campaigns of political forces and certain politicians running for the National Assembly, the following picture emerges. The situation of mass rallying activity emerged on the threshold of the May 12 voting. Society that had been in apathy and passiveness suddenly showed increased interest I the elections and became actively involved into various mass events. Most activity has been registered in the republican capital Yerevan.

It can be said that the population was equally active both in opposition rallies and all mass events of the pro-governmental parties. Activity of opposition rallies increased during the last week of the election campaign. During the same period, confrontation increased in the relations of the government and the opposition. However, even sharper confrontation was shown in the relations of the pro-governmental parties Dashnaktsutyun, the Republican Party and the Prosperous Armenia Party. If only one incident, when protesters and police clashed, took place between the government and the opposition (a rally near the National Security Service headquarters was dispersed on May 9), the contradictions in the pro-governmental camp resulted in beating people, exploding election campaign headquarters, shelling and even killings. Nevertheless, the confrontation in all directions of the relations was mainly concentrated in public polemics.

Noteworthy, almost all officials are saying in unison that Armenia’s history has not seen such “calm and civilized” elections before. The statements do not agree with almost weekly killings of various authoritative persons, beatings, arrests and other forms of abuse. Nevertheless, the mood for victory and expectation of election outcome is so dazzling for all political forces that the abuses fade into the background. None of the political forces was deprived of airtime on television. However, the current election campaign has been taking place under total information control of the Republican Party leader, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan. Choosing the tactics of personal control over the election campaign of the party, the prime minister unwillingly became the driving force for increasing activity of major rivals of the ruling party.

Most of all this reflected upon activity of the pro-presidential Prosperous Armenia, which acquired mass rallies and events with cultural programs as its favorite tool. As for the other pro-governmental party, Dashnaktsutyun, by the end of its election campaign its behavior started resembling behavior of an opposition party. At some moment it seemed that the whole election campaign would come to a competition and polemics of the three mentioned forces.

Meanwhile, the last week of the election race was marked by drastic increase in numbers of opposition mass events, first of all, by the Impeachment Bloc and Orinats Yerkir Party. A scandal around Orinats Yerkir leader Artur Bagdassaryan as well as arrest of former foreign minister, member of the Armenian National Movement Alexander Arzumanyan became stimulants to the sudden change. Eyes of society turned to opposition parties again, changing the psychological climate in the country suddenly.

The idea of the post-election mass opposition protests and “velvet revolution” was reanimated again in public speeches of opposition leaders. On May 9, leaders of the Impeachment Bloc announced their intention to take people to the streets on the election day, May 12. On May 10, Artur Bagdassaryan announced that he would be in the first rows of those protesting in case election fraud takes place. Anyway, forecasts that peace in the country will restore right after election outcomes are announced look premature. Clashes of protesters and police on May 9 to some extent became a litmus paper to potential moods of the opposition. Moreover, specific of the current elections is that threats to denounce elections outcomes in case of fraud come from the pro-government parties as well, first of all from Dashnaktsutyun. Armenia has not seen such incidents before.

In any case, all key participants say that they are aimed at victory, and one political force, the Republican Party even announced its intention to receive absolute majority of mandates in the future parliament. It is hard to say unambiguously how much they believe in their own words. It is easier to suppose how the events will develop further. It is evident that the pro-governmental parties can secure ponderable membership in the parliament. But how each pro-governmental force will like the outcomes will be clear from their actions after the election day. At least, nobody is willing to forecast on further cooperation of the future coalition. Claims and quiet threats are more heard addressed to each other. Member of the pro-governmental Dashnaktsutyun Armen Rustamyan even said he did not rule out that his party would cooperate with the opposition.

Undoubtedly, Orinats Yerkir Party would have weighty representation in the new parliament. This thing is not denied even by pro-governmental sociologists. The same concerns the National Unity Party by Artashes Geghamyan. As for other forces, which have always been surrounded by intrigue, any forecasts are senseless here. Whether the now coalition United Labor Party or Samvel Babayan’s Dashink Party will come to the parliament, only leaders of the forces know and those on whom it depends.

No matter how much officials and party leaders are speaking at length about the “vox populi”, everyone comprehends that there is another factor in Armenia apart from it – agreement and political bargaining. The fact that such things are practiced widely is evident. Example of it is consistent rumors about a deal between Stepan Demirchyan’s People’s Party and the government.

It is noteworthy, that members of the radical opposition Impeachment Movement, The Republic Party and The New Times Party that have become increasingly popular recently started feeling sorry about their fragmentation. There even was a call to two forces to renounce their participation in the elections in favor of the third one. However, as they say, the insight came too late: there are concerns now that separately those political forces would not be able to overcome the 5% barrier. But time does not wait: those willing to cooperate can do it after the election day. Who will be whose friend or enemy it will be clear after today’s voting.