Dmitri Yermolaev: Sending a “colour revolutions ambassador” to Moscow, Obama goes for broke

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Michael McFaul, Special Assistant to the President, Senior Director of Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the US National Security Council

Barak Obama’s decision, made on the eve of milestone presidential elections in Russia, to appoint Michael McFaul, Special Assistant to the President, Senior Director of Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the US National Security Council, — and a strong supporter of Dmitri Medvedev – as his new Ambassador to Moscow, provokes a lot of questions. This step acquires a special significance if we remember that many political scientists, including those from the US, think that Obama is blatantly lobbying Medvedev’s reelection.

Why has Obama decided to send a new Ambassador to Moscow at this moment? In diplomacy a change of an Ambassador before the elections is not commonly practiced – if their result is not clear beforehand. Exceptions are made in special cases – when the Ambassador is not going to be a mere observer, but would try to influence the outcome of the vote. The scheduled date of McFaul’s arrival to Moscow – September – perfectly fits this scenario.

It’s worth noting that – according to Capitol Hill gossip – the President is determined to push McFaul’s appointment through Congress by all possible means. If the Republicans in the Senate try to postpone his confirmation (as the Democrats hold a majority in the Senate, this is the only way they can prevent McFaul’s appointment to Russia), Obama is going to take advantage of the Senators’ vacation in August, and, using his constitutional powers, appoint him Ambassador for one year. Recently he used the same scheme to appoint Matthew Bryza – a rather controversial figure for US establishment – Ambassador to Baku.

There is another significant detail: in Washington McFaul won a reputation both as a specialist on Russia and an expert on staging “colour revolutions.”

So what is the bottom line: Obama wants to send to Moscow – and urgently – a specialist on “colour revolutions”? Is he ready to go for broke in Russia? If his trump card fails, Mcfaul would face an infamous retreat from Moscow, and the new US Ambassador would have a difficult task of cleaning the air in US-Russian relations, which would probably be thoroughly spoilt by his predecessor’s mission.

Why then Obama takes such a risk – and what for? Why should he put in jeopardy Washington’s relations with Moscow, crucial for global strategic stability, especially as American policies are already quite unpopular in Russia due to the one-sided “reset,” bringing no benefits to Russia and in fact covering US expansionism? In private State Department officials name the reason: Obama had placed ALL his bets on Dmitri Medvedev and their personal relationship, putting all eggs in one basket. Therefore, if Medvedev is not reelected, that would be Obama’s defeat. Moreover, this setback can damage his own chances to stay in the White House for a second term.

So, everything is clear with Obama’s risky gambling. But should Moscow give agrement to such an “ambassador?” A big question mark here.