Sinan Oğan: The Frame of Turkey's Regional Security Efforts in the Caucasus Cooperation and Stability Platform

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Five-day war that occurred in August 2008 radically changed to security conception in South Caucasus. After August war, post-USSR that was changed to regional balance in South Caucasus, Abhazia and South Ossetia that are two of the frozen problems in the region were resolved differently with their independence and  the map of the energy lines in the region has been opened to discussion. One of the region's two major power in which Turkey did not remain silent in the face of these developments that occurred and immediately after the war, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan visited to countries in the region. He was brought up “Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform” proposal.

The opinion “Platform” was not originally a new one. Süleyman Demirel who was the president of  Turkish Republic firstly mention about this opinion. Demirel were influenced from Southeastern Europe Stability Pact (SESP) which is established in Sarajevo in the July 30,1999 for Balkans which has significant similarities with Caucasus. In approximately six months after the establishment of SESP, in the January 15,2000 posed as an idea that Caucasus Stability Pact (CSP) planned towards from west to east on both sides of  Black sea (Balkans and Caucasus) for maintaining the Southeast Europe's security. However, all the world's attention directed to the Balkans at that time and this platform that envisaged for the Caucasus did not have enough support so that it could not put into practice. Developments in the meantime period has shown that such a platform is essential not only in the Balkans but also in the South Caucasus in the same time South Caucasus and even Middle East. Nevertheless, both Caucasus and Middle East got late for establishing such a platform. In that this proposal that raised in the wake of  a war would have been interesting in the beginning; however, passing the normal life had become much more difficult.

It is understood that the Prime Minister Erdoğan himself negotiated with the President of the Russian Federation Dmitri Medvedev and Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and they discussed with the proposal which has no possibility to carry out. Because that region appeared a new balance in post- war period. Such a platform in each country looks their own perception and each country has a different South Caucasus security perception. As we look at the angle of the Russian Federation, it is seen that Russia supports this proposal. However, Russian's expectation from this platform does not seem to overlap with Georgia's expectation.Russia defends to include both Abhazia and South Ossetia in this platform.

Whereas Turkey, Georgia and Azerbaijan featured the territorial integrity principle of th countries at the framework of this platform. On the other hand, post-war region, Russia who is leadership in the South Caucasus play important advantages compared to other competitors who enter into the this platform  really does not want to restrict itself is considered.

Georgia is essentially eager to ensure the territorial integrity within the framework.Furthermore, Georgia proposed by Turkey and  not think of getting in to the United States does not consider to its own interest that the most important ally, US  stay out this platform. Georgia has not satisfied from Turkey's neutralization during the war. Conversely, Russian Federation President Dmitri Medvedev thanks for Turkey's neutralization stance to Erdoğan. Whereas Georgia stated to regard  EU mediator instead of Turkey in post-war period.

Azerbaijan and Armenia has different expectations at the framework of this platform and these expectation easily satisfied, at least it does not seem possible to be solved in the short term.

 "Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform" through proposal has passed more than a year over the time. When we look at study which is done through the proposal, Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform (CSCP) can be seen at the technician level meeting of the first fives in Helsinki.

 To the first meeting of CSCP's technicians' level meeting within the frame of the 16th Session of the Council of Ministers of The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the Deputy Secretary of Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Ambassador Ünal Çeviköz) from Turkey, and deputy secretaries of state from Russia, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan attended. It has been working on a draft document at the meeting and this document is planned to include the principle,objective and mechanism of CSCP. However, after this meeting, the issue of CSCP could not be shown a remarkable improvement.

By all means, establishing and materializing a multilateral organization in a problematic geography such as Caucasia doesn't seem to be easy. However, there are many reasons including the proposal that had come from Turkey so that this led to frown on this proposal for some regions and this proposal was not appropriated by the West.

The one reason of the proposal  that could not develop “Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform” has come from Turkey. Platform proposal infrastructure hurriedly not preparing to be applied to work in the post-war.The countries who have interests and the countries of the regions have different expectations which are the most important deadlock. Of course, we should indicate one year is too short a time for such a difficult geography that tries to establish a stability platform. 

Even while Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization which is almost 20-year history was not be able to pass activity, the proposal “Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform” will immediately put into practice and it has a deep history in the region that should not expect solutions to the problems. So do the problems of the region have waited whether for the patience? How has to need the system in order to prevent frozen problems by returning hot conflicts and solve the current problems? Sure, the real  issue that is considered is this.

Today, as we look at the region, we see that a new process started to these regions. The change power in US, who think Barack Obama may be what changes unlike the Bush administration's Greater Middle East Project, such as escaping from an obsession over a more realistic policy in the period of power in the region?

First, we should express that after the attack September 11, US invaked to Afghanistan and/but US is fighting terrorism there but it left the task and it is eager to oust Saddam Hussein that was like the mission of US. All of them caused the US to be found in the Iraqi quagmire.

U.S. invaked to Iraq within the framework of the Great Middle East Project but this situation caused Iraq produce terror swamp.Moreover, any return to the U.S. invasion of Iraq would not be the factor that was obvious.Today, U.S. global domination continues to have returned to Afghanistan again.

U.S. foreign policy has shifted to the center of gravity from the Middle East to South Asia.With this new understanding of the changing is elected as the new favorite places of Islamic world, the region Afghanistan-Pakistan,by another name is South Asia region.we have been shifted to see that our new perception “South Asia Project” is geopolitical division of the Islamic center, the center of gravity of the center from the classical Middle East to the South Asia.

Global Power placed to South Asia or Afghanistan obtain unlike to Iraq:

      1.   Superpower of the future, China has opportunity to make pressure as neighbor to China. 

      2.   It has opportunity to pressure as neighbor with another country of the future, India

3.    It is neighbor with one nuclear power of the Islam world, Pakistan and even Pakistan became a part of the Afghan process in the future, it appears as control over nuclear power is provided.

4.    Iran will be completed to be surrounded.

Central Asia and  thus the study of establishing control over the fields of Russia's interests are importantly won away.

Of course, these results can be reproduced so we have sufficiency with this right now.

However, as we look at the history, ,i should not be forgotten that Afghanistan's nearly a “graveyard of Empires” function.

Today, while western countries unlike from Iraq to Afghanistan is rapidly decreasing to coalition forces for support due to public pressure still as distinct from Iraq to Afghanistan, for the first time neighboring countries' coalition forces fight to terrorism in Afghanistan, they have to be albeit partially successful. Since terror that could not be defeated in Afghanistan can threaten to get into the ranging geography from Azerbaijan to Turkey and through the Pakistan, India's Kashmir region, China's Xinjiang region, Central Asia.

Napoleon stated “Policy of states are their own geography” that is important reality. There are necessary to helpful and supportive regions to be successful in the South Asia geography. These regions are Black Sea-Caucasus-Central Asia line. Firstly, it must ensure the security of this line.

In our opinion, Black Sea-Caucasus line güvenliğin sağlanması yeni dönemde bölgesel “Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform” gibi bölgesel kapsamı girişimler yerine ikili ve çok taraflı bağlantısız girişimler daha etkili olacaktır. In this framework Turkey's application “zero policy with neighbors" can examine as a successful example. It is hardly difficult to seem that region countries and the countries who have interest in the region bring together a common platform.Moreover, the problems in Caucasus have deep and historical issues and  it is not easy to solve that process. In this reason, the solution of problems addressed more quickly and efficiently will result to establish regional corporate relations a part of the energy that will be spent on improving and developing bilateral relations.

Sinan Oğan — Turkish Centre for International Relations and Strategic Analysis- TURKSAM Chairman